276
FXUS61 KILN 100545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
145 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate northeast
through the Ohio Valley through Wednesday, bringing rain and
storms through early tonight, followed by breezy and seasonably
cool conditions during the day Wednesday. Warmer and more humid
air will quickly return to the region by the end of the week
into the upcoming weekend, with more pronounced rain chances
returning by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid level shortwave to eject northeast from from the lower Ohio
River Valley into the Great Lakes overnight into Wednesday
morning. Surface low pressure to track northeast to a position
over NE Indiana by morning. A southerly low level jet of 45-50
kts was feeding storm development with an axis of instability
approaching 1000 J/KG over ILN/s sw counties a ahead of
approaching cold front. A window continues of overlap of instby
and favorable shear over ILN/s southwest with sig. tornado
parameter at 1+ for the next couple of hours - with the threat
diminishing as we head into the overnight hours. Int he past
hour a discrete storm over Butler has shown some of the best
structure all night. Therefore - with this wedge of instability
into the Tri-state region will locally extend the tornado watch
until 06Z.

With tropical airmass over the area and PWATs around 2 inches -
torrential rainfall rates will be possible with any of the
activity through early tonight. The storms are moving but
heavy rain may lead to local flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As the sfc low migrates into NW OH Wednesday during the daytime,
an unseasonably-strong pressure gradient will set up on the
ern/srn/wrn flank of the low center, promoting a very unusual
breezy and "cool" July day for the local area. There are some
indications for ample cloud cover to linger through most of the
afternoon, which admittedly could keep deeper mixing in-check
just a bit. This being said, there is high confidence in SW/W
gusts on the order of 30-35kts Wednesday afternoon especially
near/W of I-75 on the backside of the low center late in the
day. As the winds go more out of the WNW by 20z, the best
potential for a brief window of gusts close to 40kts may evolve
in EC IN and WC OH and the Miami Valley between about 20z-22z
before the low begins to pull E and the gradient relaxes into
the mid/late evening and beyond.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be considerably cooler - ranging
from the lower/mid 70s northwest to the upper 70s in the
southeast. Lows in the lower to mid 60s are expected Wednesday
night as skies very slowly clear from W to E toward Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large area of high pressure building in behind the remnants of
Beryl will bring dry weather from Thursday through Saturday.
Increasing instability combined with a mid-level disturbance may
allow a few showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Mainly
afternoon showers and storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday
under continued instability and mid-level short wave support. A
westerly flow aloft may support MCS development so this will bear
watching.

Expect temperatures a few degrees below normal to start the period,
with highs in the low and mid 80s on Thursday. A warming trend is
indicated for the rest of the long term under insolation and warm
advection, with highs reaching the 90s in many locations, while
isolated spots could see apparent temps around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Remnants of Beryl in the form of low pressure located over
Central Indiana to continue ejecting northeast into the Great
Lakes today. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will accompany
a southward trailing cold front that sweeps east across the area
early this morning. Southeast winds will shift to the southwest
and gust up to 30 kts with this frontal passage.

Cyclonic flow persists across the area with mid level shortwave
and hang back surface trof pivoting thru the area today. This
will lead to additional showers with the best coverage across
the northern TAF sites. Ceilings to drop thru the MVFR category
with the frontal passage. A period of IFR ceilings is possible during
the late morning into the afternoon.

Winds will pick up substantially today veering from the southwest
to the west with gusts up to 30 knots possible through the
afternoon hours. As weak high pressure builds in tonight winds
begin to decrease around sunset and skies will improve with
clouds scattering out


OUTLOOK...No Significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR