263
FXUS61 KILN 100823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
423 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate northeast
into the Great Lakes today, bringing a continued chance for
rain, breezy and seasonably cool conditions. High pressure will
offer mainly dry conditions through the end of the week.
Humidity will quickly return to the region by the end of the
week into the upcoming weekend, with more pronounced rain
chances returning by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Remnants of Beryl in the form of low pressure located over
Central Indiana to continue ejecting northeast into the Great
Lakes today. Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms
accompanying a southward trailing cold front will sweep east
of the area early.

Cyclonic flow persists across the area with mid level shortwave
and hang back surface trof pivoting thru the area today. This
will lead to additional showers with the best coverage across
areas along and north of I-70.

Low clouds will persist thru most of the day with some breaks
developing into the southwest late. The pressure gradient
increases with northwest winds gusts increasing to about 35 mph.

Temperatures today will be considerably cooler - ranging from
the lower/mid 70s northwest to the upper 70s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to lift northeast with weak surface ridge
building into the area overnight into Thursday. Pressure
gradient will relax with northwest winds subsiding to 10 mph or
less overnight. As the surface high builds into the area clouds
to scatter out from the southwest tonight with skies becoming
mostly clear. Lows tonight drop to readings ranging from the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Southwest mid level flow over the area as trof develops to our
west. Surface high pressure building across the area keeps the
region dry. Highs on Thursday to range between 80 and 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad area of high pressure will build into the region for the end
of the week into the start of next week. Upper level flow will be
fairly zonal which could allow for embedded shortwaves to move
across the Ohio Valley. Although southerly flow redevelops by the
weekend bringing back heat and humidity, instability does not return
until Sunday or Monday. With lack of instability, dry conditions are
in the forecast until Sunday. For Sunday into the start of the next
week, increased diurnal rain chances accompany the heat and
humidity. There still remains some forecast uncertainty surrounding
the dry weather since embedded shortwaves could briefly increase rain
chances during the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Remnants of Beryl in the form of low pressure located over
Central Indiana to continue ejecting northeast into the Great
Lakes today. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will accompany
a southward trailing cold front that sweeps east across the area
early this morning. Southeast winds will shift to the southwest
and gust up to 30 kts with this frontal passage.

Cyclonic flow persists across the area with mid level shortwave
and hang back surface trof pivoting thru the area today. This
will lead to additional showers with the best coverage across
the northern TAF sites. Ceilings to drop thru the MVFR category
with the frontal passage. A period of IFR ceilings is possible during
the late morning into the afternoon.

Winds will pick up substantially today veering from the southwest
to the west with gusts up to 30 knots possible through the
afternoon hours. As weak high pressure builds in tonight winds
begin to decrease around sunset and skies will improve with
clouds scattering out


OUTLOOK...No Significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR