871
FXUS61 KILN 101420
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1020 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate northeast
into the Great Lakes today, bringing a continued chance for
rain, breezy and seasonably cool conditions. High pressure will
offer mainly dry conditions through the end of the week.
Humidity will quickly return to the region by the end of the
week into the upcoming weekend, with more pronounced rain
chances returning by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The remnants of Beryl have transitioned to a ~1003mb
extratropical low that is progressing to the E through the nrn
OH Vly today. Within this broad/strong cyclonic flow, shallow
yet sufficient moisture has led to patches of light
SHRA/sprinkles/drizzle that continue to pivot around the low
center, providing on-and-off very light RA to many spots near/N
of the OH Rvr through at least early afternoon. By later in the
day, as the low pulls a bit further E, the best wraparound
moisture and best chances for lingering very light RA will also
drift E, focusing more in central OH near/N of I-70 by early
evening.

The main story for today will be the unseasonably breezy/gusty
conditions, owing to a relatively tight pressure gradient
positioned across the area. SW winds of 20-25 MPH, with gusts
35-40 MPH, are expected through mid afternoon before going more
westerly and northwesterly into early evening on the backside
of the departing low.

With extensive cloud cover lingering through at least mid
afternoon, temperatures today will be considerably cooler -
ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the mid/upper 70s in the
southeast. Some clearing is expected late in the day across the
Tri-State and EC/SE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to lift northeast with weak surface ridge
building into the area overnight into Thursday. Pressure
gradient will relax with northwest winds subsiding to 10 mph or
less overnight. As the surface high builds into the area clouds
to scatter out from the southwest tonight with skies becoming
mostly clear. Lows tonight drop to readings ranging from the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Southwest mid level flow over the area as trof develops to our
west. Surface high pressure building across the area keeps the
region dry. Highs on Thursday to range between 80 and 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad area of high pressure will build into the region for the end
of the week into the start of next week. Upper level flow will be
fairly zonal which could allow for embedded shortwaves to move
across the Ohio Valley. Although southerly flow redevelops by the
weekend bringing back heat and humidity, instability does not return
until Sunday or Monday. With lack of instability, dry conditions are
in the forecast until Sunday. For Sunday into the start of the next
week, increased diurnal rain chances accompany the heat and
humidity. There still remains some forecast uncertainty surrounding
the dry weather since embedded shortwaves could briefly increase rain
chances during the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Remnants of Beryl in the form of low pressure located over
Northern Indiana to continue ejecting northeast into the Great
Lakes today. Showers with embedded thunderstorms accompanying
a southward trailing cold front have pushed east of the TAF
sites early this morning.

Cyclonic flow persists across the area with mid level shortwave
and hang back surface trof pivoting thru the area today. This
will lead to additional showers with the best coverage across
the northern TAF sites. Ceilings to drop thru the MVFR category
with a period of IFR ceilings possible during the late morning
into the afternoon. As weak high pressure builds in tonight
skies will improve with clouds scattering out late in the day
into this evening.

Winds will pick up substantially today veering from the
southwest to the west with gusts up to 30 knots possible through
the afternoon hours. Winds will subside this evening to less
than 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...No Significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR