262
FXUS61 KILN 110555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate away from the
region tonight, with seasonably mild conditions returning to the
area. Although there will be a chance for a stray shower or
storm Thursday into the weekend, most spots may stay dry. Warmer
and more humid air will return to the region toward early next
week, but that will coincide with greater chances for more
widespread storm chances again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Evening update...
No major changes to the overall forecast picture with satellite
data showing cloud cover gradually clearing from west to east.
Surface observations are also showing winds decreasing this
evening as the low pressure pulls away. High pressure is nudging
in from the west, supporting continued calm conditions
overnight. The only change to the forecast was to add mention of
patchy fog. This will be more likely to occur within river
valleys and across locations that have received rain over the
last couple of days (eastern Indiana and western Ohio).

Previous discussion...
The remnants of Beryl have transitioned to a ~1003mb
extratropical low that is progressing to the E through the nrn
OH Vly and beginning to pull away from the local area. Within
this broad/strong cyclonic flow, shallow yet sufficient moisture
has led to patches of light SHRA/sprinkles/drizzle that
continue to pivot around the low center, providing on-and-off
very light RA to many spots near/N of the OH Rvr thus far today.
This activity will begin to shift off to the E, with a few
lingering SHRA back on the wrn fringes of the cloud shield
(stretching from EC IN through the Tri-State into N KY) where
some sunshine is aiding in just enough instby to allow for
additional ISO SHRA to develop. A few very light SHRA and
sprinkles may continue in these areas into early evening.

The main story for today has been the unseasonably breezy/gusty
conditions, owing to a relatively tight pressure gradient
positioned across the area. SW winds of 20-25 MPH, with gusts
35-40 MPH, should begin to taper off late afternoon into early
afternoon, with winds quickly subsiding after sunset.

Extensive cloud cover remains draped across the area, although
there are a few breaks within the stratocu deck beginning to
emerge in the SW third of the ILN FA. These breaks should
continue to expand and creep to the E into early evening,
allowing for cloudy skies to trend partly sunny for most of the
area by sunset. Temps will dip from the lower/mid 70s this
afternoon to the lower/mid 60s by daybreak Thursday. There may
be some patchy FG, especially in area river valleys and in
locales where it is able to clear completely late tonight.
However, did not yet have confidence to add to the fcst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Although sfc high pressure will attempt to build into the region
tonight into early Thursday, it will be edged out by the
approach of a weak S/W pivoting to the ESE into the OH Vly by
daybreak Thursday. This feature, while quite weak, will provide
enough forcing amidst a still-amply-saturated environment to
initiate a few SHRA that may find their way into far W/NW parts
of the ILN FA by the afternoon. This disorganized activity,
which is sprouting now upstream off to our NW, will slowly drift
to the SE closer to the local area by early Thursday afternoon,
so have added a slight chance PoPs in EC IN, WC OH, and parts
of the Tri-State to account for this potential. Even with this
being said, most locales will remain dry through the short term
period, with the best potential for a few rogue SHRA near/W of
I-75.

Temps rebound into the lower/mid 80s before dipping into the
mid/upper 60s Thursday night with slightly more humid air
attempting to move back into the area from the W through the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday
ahead of a disturbance pushing across the Great Lakes. Mainly dry
weather is expected for Saturday under high pressure. Additional
weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass may trigger a
few storms Sunday through Tuesday. A greater threat for showers and
storms may exist on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to be
the focus for convective development.

Temperatures remaining quite warm will start with highs in the mid
and upper 80s on Friday. Readings will rise to the upper 80s to low
90s Saturday and Sunday, then to the low and mid 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Some locations could see apparent temps around 100. A
retreat to the low 80s to low 90s is indicated for Wednesday as the
cold front moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While there are some VFR clouds around some of the area TAF
sites, a large portion of the area around the TAF sites is
clear. With light winds expect some fog development overnight
at KCVG, KLUK, KDAY, and KILN. Clouds will stick around a little
more around KCMH and KLCK and therefore have VFR conditions
there overnight.

There are some showers that will move into primarily western TAF
sites Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours. Cannot
rule out some thunder, however probability was too low to
include in the TAFs at this time. Handled any precipitation at
this point with a VCSH. Winds will generally be light and less
than 10 knots through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...