Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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846 FXUS61 KILN 112335 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 735 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving disturbance will bring the chance for some showers and storms to parts of the area through Friday. Saturday will be mainly dry, however another system will bring a return of shower and thunderstorm chances to the region for Sunday into early next week. Warmer and more humid air will return to the Ohio Valley late this weekend through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Amidst abundant sunshine, interrupted only by some SCT Cu, temps have climbed into the mid/upper 80s for most of the area this afternoon. The main item of interest for the near term period is going to be the approach of a slow-moving midlevel disturbance that will pivot towards the area through tonight. Amidst sufficient moisture in the LLs, there will be enough forcing for some ISO/SCT SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, to develop and slowly migrate E into the wrn half of the ILN FA (especially EC/SE IN and SW/WC OH) through this evening. Expect this activity to be very disorganized and transient in nature (gusting out very quickly), owing to the incredibly weak wind fields through the column. But there should be just enough overlap of instby (SBCAPE ~750-1000 J/kg) and weak lift/forcing to maintain some SCT convection, especially this evening for locales near and W of the I-75 corridor. This activity could produce brief heavy downpours and perhaps some brief breezy conditions, but likely not much else. The activity should persist well after sunset and may not decrease much in coverage until after midnight. This being said, will maintain at least a slight chance PoP near/W of I-75 through the nighttime to account for the expectation of at least a few SHRA lingering into the predawn hours. Lows tonight dip into the lower 60s (central/south-central OH and NE KY) to the upper 60s near/W of I-75. For areas that receive any appreciable rain through early in the nighttime and are able to briefly clear out late, some patchy fog may be possible given the very stagnant LL environment. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Redevelopment of SCT disorganized convection is expected by Friday afternoon as the weak disturbance crawls into nrn IN/NW OH. On the ern/SE flank of the weak midlevel trof/low, an axis of better/deeper moisture will develop near the I-75/I-71 corridors by the afternoon once again, serving as a focus for the SCT SHRA/TSRA activity. Again, expect this activity to be very disorganized and transient in nature, owing to the incredibly weak wind fields/shear through the column. Further to the SE in NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley, coverage of SHRA will likely be much more limited than for locales further to the NW. Although temps will undoubtedly be augmented by clouds/convective coverage/evolution through the daytime hours, highs should generally top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s (warmest temps favored SE of I-71 where the clouds and SHRA will be more limited in coverage). Drier conditions should evolve Friday night as lows dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mid-level short wave interacting with a humid and unstable airmass may trigger isolated thunderstorms in far western locations on Saturday. More pronounced short waves tracking across the Great Lakes could bring a better chance for showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday. The threat for convective activity increases again Wednesday when a frontal boundary is forecast to sag into the unstable airmass entrenched across the Ohio Valley. The front settles farther south and high pressure builds over the Great Lakes on Thursday, suggesting diminishing chances for showers and storms. Hot temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday will rise into the 90s in most locations by Monday and Tuesday in the persistent southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Heat indices over 100 will be possible Monday and Tuesday. Cold advection associated with the boundary will allow upper 70s to mid and upper 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms which developed over portions of Indiana have slowly moved eastward. While some showers and an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out for DAY/ILN/CVG/LUK, the immediate forecast wrinkle was to time out an outflow boundary moving through the sites at TAF issuance. Given the marginal flow most of the day, winds around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots are forecast with the passage of the outflow boundary. Then, winds will become more variable or out of the east-southeast once again. A weak disturbance keeps a small potential for additional festering of convective activity overnight, but this should be quite isolated. Some renewed SHRA and ISO TSRA activity is expected again past 15z Friday, with greatest coverage during the afternoon. Winds will be largely light/VRB at 5kts or less through the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...McGinnis