957
FXUS61 KILN 142351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
751 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the
cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the
second half of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
New thunderstorm development occurring from Wisconsin into Iowa
is expected to form the next MCS which will track east
southeast overnight. There is the potential that some of this
activity could get into far northern counties before daybreak.

Temperatures will rebound from rain-cooled readings, but only
slightly as diurnal heating rapidly wanes. Expect reading to
then become nearly steady through the overnight hours in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into the day on Monday, there is some signal for convective
activity, especially across northern portions of the region even
during the morning hours. However, once again, the best
potential for strong to severe storms is likely to be focused
later in the day as /yet another/ MCS likely approaches from the
W late in the evening (perhaps even lingering into the
overnight). Again, the primary threat with these storms will be
strong to damaging winds, especially near/W of I-71, with less
severity/coverage near/E of I-71.

With the potential for more convective activity, the decision
was made to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday, even with
a *strong* signal that a large portion of the region to hit
heat advisory criteria on Monday. Do expect that a Heat Advisory
will eventually be needed/warranted (especially near/S of
I-70), but given uncertainties in storm/cloud evolution at this
point, especially as it relates to spatial coverage, decided to
hold off for now. But... if storms hold off mainly until the
evening as some guidance suggests, heat will be the main story
for the daytime period. Highs in the lower/mid 90s along with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will likely allow for heat index
values in the lower 100s for many areas near/S of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will push south through the County Warning Area late
Tuesday and Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of the front, the slow-
moving nature of the boundary, as well as strong instability in the
latest guidance provide an ample signal for the threat of heavy
rain/localized flooding. In addition, strong to severe storms are
also possible.

Cooler air follows behind the front with precipitation tailing off
north to south on Wednesday. Beyond this, dry surface high pressure
slowly builds in across the Great Lakes through the rest of the
period with near to below normal temperatures and little to no
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect to just see some high and mid clouds pass across the
region through the first half of the TAF period. This may allow
for some fog/mist to develop, especially after rain during the
day, but for now have just limited this to MVFR restrictions at
KLUK.

Expecting a complex of thunderstorms developing in the upper
midwest to pass north of the terminals, but it is not completely
out of the question that some showers or storms could affect
KDAY to KCMH/KLCK between 11Z and 15Z. Thereafter only
forecasting few to scattered cumulus through the end of the TAF
period although southwest winds could gust to or above 20 kt.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...