Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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675 FXUS61 KILN 122329 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 729 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry weather for Saturday. A wave of low pressure will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday in the persistently unstable pattern. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will a accompany a cold front expected to push through during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed today over the west half of the FA in a humid and unstable weather regime enhanced by short wave energy evident on IR satellite. Main effects from this activity has been heavy downpours, though cells appear to be moving fast enough to mitigate flood risk. Eastward extent of storms may be limited by lower instability across eastern counties. Expect this convective activity to wane this evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows in the mid 60s to 70 are forecast by 6 am. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is forecast for Saturday under weak high pressure. Highs temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the low 90s will be a few degrees above normal. A relatively potent packet of short wave energy will be pushing toward the Central Great Lakes on Saturday night. A round of showers and thunderstorms may begin to affect western locations after midnight. Strength, timing, and impacts of this system are still somewhat uncertain and later forecasts should be able to more accurately determine the affects to our area. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Summertime pattern continues through much of the extended. To start, a disturbance will provide an increasing chance of showers and storms Sunday. Conditions appear favorable for an MCS to develop and move with the flow across the Great Lakes through Sunday morning. There is still significant uncertainty here with the details, so will stay with high chance PoPs during this time. It will be hot this day as well, but coverage of precipitation may provide some relief at times. Weak mid-level ridging extends back east into the region for Monday into early Tuesday. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two Monday with low-level moisture and persistent instability, however the primary weather story during this time will be increasing heat under the ridge. Blended guidance continues to show max heat indices approaching 100 degrees both days. By later on Tuesday, a stronger shortwave will cause a cold front to sag southeast into the Ohio Valley late in the day. Showers and storms will again increase in coverage ahead of this feature Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday before a cooler air mass arrives behind the front. This will offer some relief to the heat through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR restrictions for most locations. Can`t rule out an isolated shower affecting area TAFs, but coverage appears low enough after 00Z to eliminate precip mention. ILN/LUK have BR mentioned with another night of light and variable flow leading to some patchy fog. High pressure supplies another weak wind flow day for Saturday with afternoon cumulus expected. Might see a few spotty showers around. For now, have left mention out of the forecast given the isolated nature. A more active thunderstorm pattern likely arrives Sunday and continues into early next week. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...McGinnis