330
FXUS61 KILN 130555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry
weather for Saturday. A wave of low pressure will bring the
threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.
A few showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday in the
persistently unstable pattern. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will a accompany a cold front expected to push
through during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Evening update...
Only a few very isolated showers remain this evening with mostly
clear and dry conditions still expected overnight. Once again,
mention of patchy fog was added with the focus for fog likely
over areas that have seen rain in recent days (roughly along and
west of the I-71 corridor) and within valleys. Otherwise, no
major changes to the forecast with surface high pressure
centered over the region.

Previous discussion...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed today over
the west half of the FA in a humid and unstable weather regime
enhanced by short wave energy evident on IR satellite. Main
effects from this activity has been heavy downpours, though
cells appear to be moving fast enough to mitigate flood risk.
Eastward extent of storms may be limited by lower instability
across eastern counties. Expect this convective activity to wane
this evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows in
the mid 60s to 70 are forecast by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Dry weather is forecast for Saturday under weak high pressure.
Highs temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the low 90s
will be a few degrees above normal.

A relatively potent packet of short wave energy will be pushing
toward the Central Great Lakes on Saturday night. A round of
showers and thunderstorms may begin to affect western locations
after midnight. Strength, timing, and impacts of this system are
still somewhat uncertain and later forecasts should be able to
more accurately determine the affects to our area.

Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summertime pattern continues through much of the extended. To start,
a disturbance will provide an increasing chance of showers and
storms Sunday. Conditions appear favorable for an MCS to develop and
move with the flow across the Great Lakes through Sunday morning.
There is still significant uncertainty here with the details, so
will stay with high chance PoPs during this time.  It will be hot
this day as well, but coverage of precipitation may provide some
relief at times.

Weak mid-level ridging extends back east into the region for Monday
into early Tuesday. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two Monday
with low-level moisture and persistent instability, however the
primary weather story during this time will be increasing heat under
the ridge. Blended guidance continues to show max heat indices
approaching 100 degrees both days.

By later on Tuesday, a stronger shortwave will cause a cold front to
sag southeast into the Ohio Valley late in the day. Showers and
storms will again increase in coverage ahead of this feature Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday before a cooler air mass arrives behind the
front. This will offer some relief to the heat through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected overnight. There will be some fog
around overnight with varying visibilities at the area TAF
sites. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop on
Saturday, however coverage was not enough to include at the TAF
sites. Winds will generally be light and less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...