Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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601 FXUS61 KILN 131722 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 122 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance in the vicinity today will lead to isolated shower and thunderstorm activity today. A stronger upper level disturbance will dive into the region Sunday afternoon. An unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week until after a cold front passes on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... River valley BR/FG continues to dissipate, leaving mostly sunny skies just about everywhere. There are a few patches of Cu that continue to percolate about the area and expect an increase in coverage into the late morning/early afternoon hours with diurnally-driven warming/destabilization. Along with this will be the development of some very isolated/disorganized SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. Coverage and intensity of storms should be a notch below what parts of the area have experienced over the past few days. Most areas will stay dry through the near term period. With the expectation for coverage of SHRA to be less than in past few days, highs should nudge a bit warmer -- a degree or two either side of 90 for most spots. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will push heat index values into the mid 90s by late afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Expect generally dry conditions overnight tonight. During the day on Sunday, especially during the afternoon into the early evening hours, thunderstorm chances will increase as an upper level disturbance dives down into the region. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across northern portions of the region. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Added this mention into the HWO. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to the potential for some heat index values near 100 across southern portions of the region on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave energy and a possible MCS will drop down across the southern Great Lakes Sunday night, possibly brushing across mainly northeast portions of our area. Weak mid level ridging will then build in from the southwest Monday into Monday night before upper level troughing over the Great Lakes begins to shift down into the mid and upper Ohio Valley through mid week. This will help push an associated cold front southeast across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Ahead of this, temperatures will be warm with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s both Monday and Tuesday with heat indices to 100 degrees or so each afternoon. It will be tough to rule out a few diurnally enhanced thunderstorms on Monday. A better chance for thunderstorms will then spread down across the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday as the cold front moves through. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week. Highs by Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions have evolved area-wide, with SCT/BKN VFR Cu already draped across the region. While a stray brief SHRA cannot be completely ruled out through sunset, coverage of any activity should be limited/disorganized enough that will keep fcsts dry at this point. Skies should trend mostly clear after sunset, with perhaps a few VFR Cu lingering about from time to time. Some VSBY reductions are likely again late tonight at KLUK given light/stagnant flow. After 12z, focus will shift to one or more decaying clusters of storms that will be approaching from the W/NW, likely approaching the local area after 18z. The sites should remain dry through 18z, but there is the expectation for at least ISO SHRA/TSRA to overspread the area between 18z-00z, potentially impacting the latter part of the KCVG 30-hr TAF. Light WNW winds around 6-8kts will be maintained through sunset before going light/VRB/calm overnight. WSW winds around 10-12kts, with gusts 15-20kts, are expected ahead of any ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA activity Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...KC