601
FXUS61 KILN 131722
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
122 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance in the vicinity today will lead to isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity today. A stronger upper level
disturbance will dive into the region Sunday afternoon. An
unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week until
after a cold front passes on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
River valley BR/FG continues to dissipate, leaving mostly sunny
skies just about everywhere. There are a few patches of Cu that
continue to percolate about the area and expect an increase in
coverage into the late morning/early afternoon hours with
diurnally-driven warming/destabilization. Along with this will
be the development of some very isolated/disorganized SHRA,
with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. Coverage and intensity
of storms should be a notch below what parts of the area have
experienced over the past few days. Most areas will stay dry
through the near term period.

With the expectation for coverage of SHRA to be less than in
past few days, highs should nudge a bit warmer -- a degree or
two either side of 90 for most spots. This, combined with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will push heat index values
into the mid 90s by late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Expect generally dry conditions overnight tonight. During the
day on Sunday, especially during the afternoon into the early
evening hours, thunderstorm chances will increase as an upper
level disturbance dives down into the region. The best chance
for thunderstorms will be across northern portions of the
region. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds the primary threat. Added this mention into the
HWO. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to the
potential for some heat index values near 100 across southern
portions of the region on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave energy and a possible MCS will drop down across the
southern Great Lakes Sunday night, possibly brushing across mainly
northeast portions of our area.

Weak mid level ridging will then build in from the southwest Monday
into Monday night before upper level troughing over the Great Lakes
begins to shift down into the mid and upper Ohio Valley through mid
week. This will help push an associated cold front southeast across
the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Ahead of this,
temperatures will be warm with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s
both Monday and Tuesday with heat indices to 100 degrees or so each
afternoon. It will be tough to rule out a few diurnally enhanced
thunderstorms on Monday. A better chance for thunderstorms will then
spread down across the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
and continuing into Wednesday as the cold front moves through.

Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the
Ohio Valley through the end of the work week. Highs by Thursday and
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions have evolved area-wide, with SCT/BKN VFR Cu
already draped across the region. While a stray brief SHRA
cannot be completely ruled out through sunset, coverage of any
activity should be limited/disorganized enough that will keep
fcsts dry at this point.

Skies should trend mostly clear after sunset, with perhaps a few
VFR Cu lingering about from time to time. Some VSBY reductions
are likely again late tonight at KLUK given light/stagnant
flow.

After 12z, focus will shift to one or more decaying clusters of
storms that will be approaching from the W/NW, likely
approaching the local area after 18z. The sites should remain
dry through 18z, but there is the expectation for at least ISO
SHRA/TSRA to overspread the area between 18z-00z, potentially
impacting the latter part of the KCVG 30-hr TAF.

Light WNW winds around 6-8kts will be maintained through sunset
before going light/VRB/calm overnight. WSW winds around
10-12kts, with gusts 15-20kts, are expected ahead of any ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA activity Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC