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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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354 FXUS61 KILN 191803 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 203 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. More humid conditions will return next week along with chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry conditions across the region. Some high clouds will mix with some diurnal cumulus. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, upper 70s to the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area through the period. A weakening short wave will pass south of the area. But northern edge of showers and thunderstorms associated with this could extend into parts of northeastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, continued dry with relatively low dew points. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the previous day once again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period begins with weak/diffuse surface high pressure across the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave trough slowly moving from the northern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley. The high will keep relatively comfortable dewpoints over our area through Sunday with low PoPs. As we get into Monday, the high weakens further. This will allow warmer and more humid conditions to start working to the north accompanying light southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave. We could start seeing a few isolated to scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon as dewpoints lift into the upper 60s and weak instability develops. To close the period Tuesday through Thursday, guidance suggests the mid-level shortwave will cause a surface wave to form and lift northeast into the Ohio Valley. This provides enough forcing for increasing coverage of showers and storms area-wide. With H5 winds remaining below 40 knots in this blocky upper pattern, expect organized severe storm threat to remain quite low... typical for late July. However, with PWATs quite high (another earmark of late July), can`t rule out some localized flood threat owing to slow- moving clusters of convection. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the southern Great Lakes through the TAF period. A mix of mainly SCT diurnal cumulus and SCT-BKN cirrus can be expected. There could be a little bit of MVFR mist at KLUK late tonight. Winds will vary between northeast and north between 5 and 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman