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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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664 FXUS61 KILN 150242 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the second half of the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MCS over northern Illinois is the focus for the near term. Environment in the wake of the daytime MCS is unfavorable, although there will likely be some recovery through the overnight hours. Recent guidance suggests that the MCS could split with part continuing across the lower Great Lakes and another part dropping drop south in the more favorable instability axis. Such a scenario would put the forecast area in the split with little if any activity. Have maintained some low chance PoPs across the far northern counties late tonight. Even without precipitation, high to mid clouds from the MCS will spread across the area overnight. Expect little variation in temperatures through the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Heading into the day on Monday, there is some signal for convective activity, especially across northern portions of the region even during the morning hours. However, once again, the best potential for strong to severe storms is likely to be focused later in the day as /yet another/ MCS likely approaches from the W late in the evening (perhaps even lingering into the overnight). Again, the primary threat with these storms will be strong to damaging winds, especially near/W of I-71, with less severity/coverage near/E of I-71. With the potential for more convective activity, the decision was made to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday, even with a *strong* signal that a large portion of the region to hit heat advisory criteria on Monday. Do expect that a Heat Advisory will eventually be needed/warranted (especially near/S of I-70), but given uncertainties in storm/cloud evolution at this point, especially as it relates to spatial coverage, decided to hold off for now. But... if storms hold off mainly until the evening as some guidance suggests, heat will be the main story for the daytime period. Highs in the lower/mid 90s along with dewpoints in the lower 70s will likely allow for heat index values in the lower 100s for many areas near/S of I-70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will push south through the County Warning Area late Tuesday and Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of the front, the slow- moving nature of the boundary, as well as strong instability in the latest guidance provide an ample signal for the threat of heavy rain/localized flooding. In addition, strong to severe storms are also possible. Cooler air follows behind the front with precipitation tailing off north to south on Wednesday. Beyond this, dry surface high pressure slowly builds in across the Great Lakes through the rest of the period with near to below normal temperatures and little to no precipitation. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect to just see some high and mid clouds pass across the region through the first half of the TAF period. This may allow for some fog/mist to develop, especially after rain during the day, but for now have just limited this to MVFR restrictions at KLUK. Complex of thunderstorms developing in northern Illinois is forecast to pass north of the terminals. Thereafter only forecasting few to scattered cumulus through the end of the TAF period although southwest winds could gust to or above 20 kt. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...