205
FXUS61 KILN 150615
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
215 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the
cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the
second half of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MCS over northern Illinois is the focus for the near term.
Environment in the wake of the daytime MCS is unfavorable,
although there will likely be some recovery through the
overnight hours. Recent guidance suggests that the MCS could
split with part continuing across the lower Great Lakes and
another part dropping drop south in the more favorable
instability axis. Such a scenario would put the forecast area in
the split with little if any activity. Have maintained some low
chance PoPs across the far northern counties late tonight. Even
without precipitation, high to mid clouds from the MCS will
spread across the area overnight. Expect little variation in
temperatures through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Heading into the day on Monday, there is some signal for convective
activity, especially across northern portions of the region even
during the morning hours. However, once again, the best
potential for strong to severe storms is likely to be focused
later in the day as /yet another/ MCS likely approaches from the
W late in the evening (perhaps even lingering into the
overnight). Again, the primary threat with these storms will be
strong to damaging winds, especially near/W of I-71, with less
severity/coverage near/E of I-71.

With the potential for more convective activity, the decision
was made to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday, even with
a *strong* signal that a large portion of the region to hit
heat advisory criteria on Monday. Do expect that a Heat Advisory
will eventually be needed/warranted (especially near/S of
I-70), but given uncertainties in storm/cloud evolution at this
point, especially as it relates to spatial coverage, decided to
hold off for now. But... if storms hold off mainly until the
evening as some guidance suggests, heat will be the main story
for the daytime period. Highs in the lower/mid 90s along with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will likely allow for heat index
values in the lower 100s for many areas near/S of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will push south through the County Warning Area late
Tuesday and Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of the front, the slow-
moving nature of the boundary, as well as strong instability in the
latest guidance provide an ample signal for the threat of heavy
rain/localized flooding. In addition, strong to severe storms are
also possible.

Cooler air follows behind the front with precipitation tailing off
north to south on Wednesday. Beyond this, dry surface high pressure
slowly builds in across the Great Lakes through the rest of the
period with near to below normal temperatures and little to no
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid clouds are currently working across the TAF sites. There are
some returns showing up on radar, however since precipitation is
falling from a mid deck, anything that does reach the surface is
expected to be light. Due to this, have dry conditions starting
out the TAF period.

The showers and thunderstorms over northwest Indiana are
expected to dissipate as they try to move into the region. Just
have a vcsh mention in at the western TAF sites KDAY, KCVG, and
KLUK late in the overnight and into the early daytime morning
hours before dissipating. This is then expected to lay out a
boundary for additional convective development during the
afternoon and early evening hours. The focus of this activity
will be more around KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK. Timed in tempo
tsra during the time period of greatest confidence. Winds will
also pick up today and gust around 20 to 25 knots at times.
Higher gusts will be possible with any thunderstorm activity.
These showers and storms will start to move out of the region
towards the end of the TAF period. There will be the potential
for some additional precipitation late in the longer KCVG TAF
and handled this with just a vcsh for now.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...