855
FXUS61 KILN 161805
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
region today through Wednesday. After the passage of a cold
front on Wednesday, drier and cooler conditions will move into
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A general lull in convective activity has been occurring across
the CWA this morning, while the closest thunderstorms were being
observed with a thunderstorm complex across southern Illinois
and western Kentucky. In this lull, regional satellite imagery
and local observations indicate scattered to broken mid/high
clouds across the CWA, with winds occasionally gusting up to 20
mph.

With breaks in the clouds, the atmosphere will heat up and
become unstable this afternoon so expect some thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon. Different sets of guidance
including high resolutation models depict variable scenarios for
this afternoon, ranging from little activity to more widespread
convection. So confidence in convective coverage is a bit lower
for a period one forecast today. Depending on where the most
breaks in the clouds may be, have leaned toward the northern
CWA (central/west central Ohio) and then toward the Tri- State
area as being more favorable locations for initial thunderstorm
development. Any storms that form and propagate through the CWA
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and gusty to
locally damaging winds may occur in the strongest storms.

Confidence is low in reaching heat advisory criteria anywhere
in the CWA, especially with mid to high clouds. Will likely
continue with the SPS across the southern portion of the CWA
this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph outside of any
convection will likely occur through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Additional heavy rain associated with several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will move through during the short term time
frame. Due to this have the flood watch going through much of
the day on Wednesday. As the cold front works through, cooler
temperatures and drier conditions will start to work into the
area. Temperatures on Wednesday are only expected to be in the
70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build southeast into the Great Lakes
region through the end of the week. The surface high will weaken
somewhat heading into early next week but still remain across the
Great Lakes. This will keep our area mainly dry through the long
term period. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal on
Thursday with highs in the 75 to 80 degree range. Temperatures will
then slowly modify back to seasonable readings through the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Area is dry early this afternoon. With daytime heating and
afternoon instability, expect scattered thunderstorms to pop
up. However, the more numerous convection now looks to occur
later this evening and latest TAFs have been adjusted to reflect
timing changes. Additional showers and thunderstorms are then
expected during the daytime as a cold front approaches from the
north.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ054>056-062>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BPP