337
FXUS61 KILN 170202
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area
tonight and Wednesday. After the passage of a cold front on
Wednesday, drier and cooler conditions will move into the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With a lack of significant forcing isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms which developed this afternoon have
dissipated with loss of heating.

A surface cold front across the Southern Great Lakes slips a
little south into ILN/s far northern counties toward sunrise.
This frontal boundary will offer lift with scattered thunderstorms
possible across ILN/s far northern counties overnight.

Focus shifts to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) moving
across southern IN. This feature may provide forcing overnight
to offer an increase in convective coverage across the southern
counties as it tracks east thru the Ohio Valley. Have allowed
pops to increase to account for this threat. Regarding widespread
heavy rain - model guidance continues to trend south with the
axis of potentially heavy rain. In this moist airmass can not
rule out locally heavy rain but a widespread flood threat is not
anticipated. After collaboration with surrounding offices have
dropped the flood watch.

On the warm side of the front - expect mild lows generally in
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning, especially across southern and eastern
portions of the CWA. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will
continue to be a threat from these storms. The chance of storms
will persist until a cold front crosses the CWA. So will
continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of the CWA until the front moves southeast during the late
afternoon and evening. Drier air will start to move in behind
the front, especially for Wednesday night.

High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the lower to
mid 80s, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north
to lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough axis will be digging east through the remainder
of the Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England on Thursday.
Behind this trough, surface high pressure will be building southeast
into the region, bringing drier and cooler air. Highs will range
from 75 to 80. For Thursday night, the surface high will settle into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will result in lows in the 50s.

Under mid level confluence, surface high pressure will continue to
extend over the area Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will modify
through this period with them trending closer to near normal by
Sunday.

As we head into the first part of next week, models agree that mid
level troughing will develop across the central Plains into the
middle Mississippi River Valley. This location, combined with the
development of mid level ridging off the mid Atlantic and southeast
U.S. coast, will increase moisture into the region as higher
dewpoints and pwats pump northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus,
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during this period. It
will be seasonably warm and humid with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few showers/thunderstorms have developed mainly across the
north where moderate instability exists. With a lack of
significant forcing any additional development thru the evening
is expected to be isold/scattered in coverage.

A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) moving from southern IL
into southern IN may provide forcing overnight to offer an
increase in convective coverage across the southern TAF sites
as it tracks east thru the Ohio Valley. Have handled this threat
with a VCTS since a good deal of uncertainty exists.

MVFR ceilings develop across all TAF sites late tonight into
Wednesday morning. A continued threat for scattered
thunderstorms will continue Wednesday until the front pushes
thru from northwest to southeast in the mid afternoon thru late
day. Clouds improve to VFR by afternoon and scatter out
Wednesday evening as drier air advects into the region n
northwest to north winds.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR