229
FXUS61 KILN 172345
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
745 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley tonight,
bringing a cooler and drier airmass for the rest of the work
week and into the weekend. High pressure moving into the area in
the wake of the front will keep dry weather and temperatures
below normal through most of the upcoming weekend. Increasing
moisture and weak weather disturbances will return the chance of
rain to the area for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Front currently working its way through the region, having just
passed KDAY and approaching KCMH/KCVG/KLUK. Mostly just SHRA
along the front, but a last gasp thunderstorm or two in central
Ohio. Wind gust to about 25kts with the FROPA.

Ahead of the front across southern Ohio and KY, thunderstorms
diminishing as environment becomes more stable.

Winds turning northerly overnight, but should remain elevated in
a pretty strong gradient for this time of year settling through
the mid Ohio Valley. Not expecting any light fog, as winds
should remain in the 5-10kt range overnight. The exception would
be possibly some very light valley fog.

Cool overnight lows in the upper 50s through much of the area,
but where clouds linger a bit and some high clouds stream into
the area from the lower Ohio Valley, closer to 60 or low 60s for
the Scioto Valley, and along/south of the Ohio River.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Skies should clear through the night as the upper trough
departs, and temperatures drop into the 50s and lower 60s. Winds
would remain above 5 or 6kts tonight, which should help keep any
fog that may otherwise develop on the patchy side, and more in
the valleys.

Should see plenty of fair weather cumulus develop with heating
on Thursday, maximized in central Ohio relatively speaking.
There is quite a dry air /PWAT negatively anomaly to 2 sigma
below climo/ that is working against this, so expect a fair
amount of sunshine outside the peak of the cumulus cycle.
Temperatures a good 8-10F below normal as the mid level height
trough/low level thermal troughs move across the area.

Skies will clear again Thursday night with a very cool night for
mid July - with lows dropping into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the period Friday through Saturday, surface high pressure will
stretch from the middle Mississippi River Valley northeast into the
Great Lakes and New England. Meanwhile, old frontal boundary will
remain to our south. This period is expected to be dry and generally
less humid. There could be some clouds, especially south/east as a
weak mid level system ripples northeast on our southern/eastern
periphery. Temperatures will mostly warm back into the 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

For the period Sunday into Monday, a mid level trough is forecast to
dig southeast into the central Plains and middle Mississippi River
Valley. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will be located off the
southeast U.S. coast. This period will begin to see a transition as
deeper moisture starts to advect northeast from the Gulf of Mexico
between these two major circulations. Sunday should remain mainly
dry with a chance of showers/storms returning to the forecast by
Monday. Temperatures will be seasonal, highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

For the remainder of the extended, Tuesday into Wednesday, we will
continue in a deep, most, southwest flow aloft between the
aforementioned two systems. This pattern, along with embedded
disturbances rippling within the flow, will bring increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, will increase PoPs, along

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All locations except for KDAY still ahead of the cold front, so
with it will come gusts to about 25 kts in the first hour of the
TAF period. NW winds 10-15kts will diminish slightly overnight,
and VFR conditions will prevail. The only location which may see
MVFR visibility would be KLUK in the 08-12z timeframe, but
marginal confidence in this occurring.

NW flow continues into Thursday, with VFR conditions prevailing.
SCT VFR clouds, but could see BKN in the 16-20z timeframe.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JDR