392
FXUS61 KILN 180532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley tonight,
bringing a cooler and drier airmass for the rest of the work
week and into the weekend. High pressure moving into the area in
the wake of the front will keep dry weather and temperatures
below normal through most of the upcoming weekend. Increasing
moisture and weak weather disturbances will return the chance of
rain to the area for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front across eastern counties will move out of the area
before daybreak. Precipitation has fizzled along the boundary.
There is quite a bit of high cloud cover streaming northeast
across the region although this will be transient, pushing
eastwards as well. Temperatures and dew point will continue to
fall through the rest of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Skies should clear through the night as the upper trough
departs, and temperatures drop into the 50s and lower 60s. Winds
would remain above 5 or 6kts tonight, which should help keep any
fog that may otherwise develop on the patchy side, and more in
the valleys.

Should see plenty of fair weather cumulus develop with heating
on Thursday, maximized in central Ohio relatively speaking.
There is quite a dry air /PWAT negatively anomaly to 2 sigma
below climo/ that is working against this, so expect a fair
amount of sunshine outside the peak of the cumulus cycle.
Temperatures a good 8-10F below normal as the mid level height
trough/low level thermal troughs move across the area.

Skies will clear again Thursday night with a very cool night for
mid July - with lows dropping into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the period Friday through Saturday, surface high pressure will
stretch from the middle Mississippi River Valley northeast into the
Great Lakes and New England. Meanwhile, old frontal boundary will
remain to our south. This period is expected to be dry and generally
less humid. There could be some clouds, especially south/east as a
weak mid level system ripples northeast on our southern/eastern
periphery. Temperatures will mostly warm back into the 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

For the period Sunday into Monday, a mid level trough is forecast to
dig southeast into the central Plains and middle Mississippi River
Valley. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will be located off the
southeast U.S. coast. This period will begin to see a transition as
deeper moisture starts to advect northeast from the Gulf of Mexico
between these two major circulations. Sunday should remain mainly
dry with a chance of showers/storms returning to the forecast by
Monday. Temperatures will be seasonal, highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

For the remainder of the extended, Tuesday into Wednesday, we will
continue in a deep, most, southwest flow aloft between the
aforementioned two systems. This pattern, along with embedded
disturbances rippling within the flow, will bring increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, will increase PoPs, along

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will prevail. Mainly just some high clouds during the early
part of the period. Scattered cumulus will develop with heating
and may extend a bit past 00Z before completely dissipating.
Winds will generally be north around 10 kt.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...