439
FXUS61 KILN 190756
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual
warming trend. More humid conditions will return next week along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry
conditions across the region. Some high clouds may slide into
the area later in the day and a few cumulus may develop as well.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area
through the period. A weakening short wave will pass south of
the area. But northern edge of showers and thunderstorms
associated with this could extend into parts of northeastern
Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, continued dry with
relatively low dew points. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the
previous day once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period begins with weak/diffuse surface high
pressure across the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave trough
slowly moving from the northern Plains into the middle
Mississippi Valley. The high will keep relatively comfortable
dewpoints over our area through Sunday with low PoPs.

As we get into Monday, the high weakens further. This will allow
warmer and more humid conditions to start working to the north
accompanying light southerly flow ahead of the approaching
shortwave. We could start seeing a few isolated to scattered showers
and storms Monday afternoon as dewpoints lift into the upper 60s and
weak instability develops.

To close the period Tuesday through Thursday, guidance suggests the
mid-level shortwave will cause a surface wave to form and lift
northeast into the Ohio Valley. This provides enough forcing for
increasing coverage of showers and storms area-wide. With H5 winds
remaining below 40 knots in this blocky upper pattern, expect
organized severe storm threat to remain quite low... typical for
late July. However, with PWATs quite high (another earmark of late
July), can`t rule out some localized flood threat owing to slow-
moving clusters of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with light northeast winds throughout, except at KLUK where
there could be some brief visibility reductions early in the
period. MAybe a few cumulus during peak heating as well as some
thin cirrus spreading across the region.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this
time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...