Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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991 FXUS61 KILN 121731 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 131 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid weather will continue through the weekend and early next week under weak high pressure, with afternoon thunderstorms possible each day. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will a accompany a cold front expected to push through during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Weather is dry to start under high pressure and a weakly forced environment. There may be few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from a humid and unstable airmass enhanced by a mid level disturbance. These loosely organized convective elements should remain under severe limits while producing brief downpours. Temperatures will be quite warm with highs ranging from the mid 80s northwest to the low 90s southeast && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Dry weather is likely tonight once isolated convection dissipates this evening with loss of daytime heating. Went close to the blend for temperatures with lows in the 60s tonight and high temperatures on Saturday in the middle 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... West to northwest flow will continue aloft through early next week as southwest flow persists in the low levels. This will lead to an increase in temperatures and moisture Sunday through Tuesday. Mid level energy will drop down into the Great Lakes through mid week, helping to push a cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley through the end of the long term period. A mid level short wave will push east across the region Sunday into Sunday night, leading to a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increasing instabilities Monday and Tuesday will lead to at least some lower end chances for diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms each day. While there are some timing differences with the front, it will eventually lead to some better chances for showers and thunderstorms, most likely Tuesday night and/or into the day on Wednesday. In the southwest flow, warm temperatures are expected through the first part of next week with daytime highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for Sunday through Tuesday. This will combine with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s to produce heat indices to around 100 degrees or so Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. Some cooler temperatures will then move in behind the front through mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR is forecast to start the TAF period at most sites. VCTS will impact CVG LUK DAY and ILN this afternoon until dissipating by evening. Put TSRA with MVFR at CVG where such conditions may be imminent. Will amend to add TSRA at other sites if direct impacts are expected. For tonight, under humid and calm conditions, BR is forecast to develop and reduce visibility at CVG LUK DAY and ILN. A return to VFR along with dry weather is anticipated for Saturday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio