687
FXUS61 KILN 011754
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today in advance of a
cold front. Precipitation will come to an end for Tuesday evening and
fog will be possible across portions of the region for Tuesday
night. After a brief moderation in temperatures, warmer temperatures
will start to work back into the region into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One area of precipitation across eastern portions of the region has
decreased in coverage and moved out of the region. There is then a
lull in the precipitation and also breaks in the cloud cover. Due to
this have some patchy fog mention in. There are already some showers
starting to develop across the Tri-State in advance of a larger area
of showers and thunderstorms over Indiana. Expect additional shower
and some thunderstorm activity to move into the region later in the
overnight and into the day on Tuesday. Cannot rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm with damaging winds the primary threat across
primarily the southern and southeastern portions of the region today.
In addition pockets of heavier rainfall will lead to the potential
for localized flooding issues. A cold front will move through late in
the day. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the low to
middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will continue to move through during the evening.
Precipitation will quickly come to an end. While drier air will start
to work in there will be some lingering low level moisture and
therefore have patchy fog in across the southeastern half of the
forecast area primarily near and southeast of Interstate 71. Also
have patchy dense fog in the river valleys.

Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the low to middle
80s with dewpoints in the 60s.  CAA cu will be present.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Wednesday evening, an area of surface high pressure will be
centered over the middle Mississippi Valley region, extending
northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The upper level pattern will
exhibit troughing over the northeastern states and Quebec, and
ridging building into the central part of the CONUS.

The ridging will begin to move east through the end of the week and
into the weekend. This will put the ILN CWA into a pattern that will
trend warmer with time. Conditions look to be generally dry, with
the area a little too close to the center of the ridge (and the
associated surface high) to be in a favorable location for storm
development. Could probably be a very low chance of some showers and
storms in northern Indiana and Ohio on Thursday and Friday, but
chances in the ILN forecast area would be very low confidence at
most. Dry weather is now forecast for Saturday as well, with the
ridge remaining well-established. Since precipitation will not be
the main concern through this period, a return to hot temperatures
may be the bigger issue -- with highs reaching the lower 90s by
Saturday. As of now, it looks like dewpoints may stay low enough to
keep the area out of heat advisory criteria.

By Sunday, there is more variance from model-to-model, but some
signs that the ridge may begin to break down a bit as a shortwave
approaches from the west. Chances for thunderstorms look perhaps a
little higher for Sunday and Monday, but confidence remains low in
any specifics. Temperatures should stay warm on Sunday (lower 90s)
before starting to fall slightly early in the week (upper 80s on
Monday). While chances for storms will exist for Sunday and beyond,
as of now, no clear signs for organized convection or significant
hazards through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to move through central and eastern Ohio/ northern
Kentucky at the time of this writing; low end VFR CIGs still exist at
eastern TAF sites (KCMH/KLCK) along with MVFR VSBYs. These conditions
should improve this afternoon as rain pushes east.

After the bulk of precip moves east, all sites should scatter out
this afternoon. Winds will be light and out of the northwest. As the
cold front associated with this system pushes through later this
afternoon/evening, we will have a thin line of showers/storms that
will move through from west to east. Have timed this out using
Prob30s with thunder between 21Z Tuesday through 2Z-ish Wednesday.

After this, we should quiet down. Winds remain light and variable
overnight. There is a signal for fog formation throughout the Ohio
Valley region into the Appalachians, so have timed this in during
early morning hours. Have low confidence on timing... guidance hints
that fog may form sooner than what is currently in TAFs, but winds
take a bit to decrease.

Wednesday will be dry with scattered cu. Winds out of the
west/northwest under 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...CA