658
FXUS61 KILN 151752
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Wednesday. Warm temperatures will
also be in place until the passage of the cold front. Drier and
cooler conditions are expected for the second half of the
week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A remnant/decaying MCV continues to work its way through the
heart of the local area, with an axis of clouds extending to the
S of the MCV center, which will continue to move E through late
morning into early afternoon. Quite a bit of clearing is likely
to evolve behind this MCV into early afternoon within a
subsidence regime, which has led to enough confidence to issue
a Heat Advisory across the srn 2/3 of the ILN FA. The
combination of temps in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower
70s will allow for heat index values around 100 to evolve this
afternoon in these areas. There are still some uncertainties
regarding afternoon convective redevelopment and the associated
impact on temps/heat index values, but feel that there still
should be slightly cooler temps near/N of I-70 in central OH
that heat index values should stay below advisory thresholds.

For locales in central into south-central OH, there will likely
be a subtle boundary that will be the focus area for additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon and into the early
evening hours. With a thermodynamically-favorable environment,
there will be the potential that thunderstorms that develop
today will produce gusty to damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.
As such, will continue mention in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
After the thunderstorms across central Ohio begin to dissipate
and move out of the region there will be a decrease in
precipitation across the region. This will be short lived as
another wave will start to bring an increase in precipitation
chances later in the overnight hours towards Tuesday morning.

During the day on Tuesday, a boundary will lay out across the
region allowing for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
While thunderstorm damaging wind gusts will be a concern, the
greater concern starts to shift towards flash flooding concerns
with heavy rainfall. Moisture transport vectors show some
concerning signals with some areas receiving several hours of
heavy rain, beginning towards the end of the short term. Added
heavy rain mention to the forecast and will continue to mention
flooding potential in the HWO.

Heat will again be a concern on Tuesday, however this will be
heavily convective dependent.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will move southeast across our area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Good moisture transport will continue into
Tuesday night ahead of the front with PWs increasing into the 2 to
2.5 inch range. With the flow becoming more parallel to the front,
some training storms will be possible with heavy downpours and
localized flooding possible Tuesday night, possibly lingering into
Wednesday morning across our south. As the front moves south of the
area later Wednesday, we will see a decreasing chance of pcpn from
the northwest through the rest of the day.

High pressure and a drier, less warm airmass will settle into the
Ohio Valley through the end of the work week. Highs Wednesday
through Friday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures
will begin to slowly moderate through the weekend but we should
remain mostly dry. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR Cu has sprouted about again this afternoon, a bit delayed
from the past several days due to the influences of the
departing MCV now well to the E. Through 00z, the main item of
interest will be the expectation for ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA to
develop, mainly near/S of I-70, which will bring the potential
for brief periods of TSRA and associated abrupt changes in both
VSBYs and wind speeds/gusts. Any pronounced change will be
handled with amendments as needed based on radar/obs trends,
but did include a several hour TEMPO TS at each of the sites,
primarily between 19z-22z to account for this potential.

There will be a lull late this evening before a decaying MCS
works its way SE into the local area, potentially impacting the
local sites mainly after 06z. There will likely be fairly gusty
winds with this activity, even if the SHRA/TSRA begins to wane
in coverage/intensity, with the threat shifting to the SE
through the local area as a whole between about 05z-10z. Did not
yet have confidence to add the brief gusty wind potential in
the fcsts given uncertainties in timing, but do expect some
brief gustiness out of the W/NW with the passage of the outflow
and/or ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA. The best coverage of SHRA/TSRA is
likely to focus near/W of I-75 for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK during the
predawn hours, but there are uncertainties in regards to the
eastern extent of the complex.

SW winds around 12-15kts, with gusts 20-25kts and SCT Cu is
expected again on Tuesday, with the potential once again for
late day SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ060>063-
     070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC