923
FXUS62 KILM 201344
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
944 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as
Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain
nearly stationary.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the forecast with the morning update. Still
expect to see some isolated to scattered convection in the area
midday through late afternoon, followed by a more robust round
of convection during the evening hours...similar to what has
occurred the last few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the
area today and tonight as weak upper level energy approaches from
the sw. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Given the abundant moisture
available, locally heavy rain is possible but the storms should move
quickly enough to preclude widespread flooding concerns.  Highs
today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Persistent southwest flow will maintain deep moisture advection
through Monday evening. Perturbations in the mid level flow
will support widespread showers and storms each afternoon. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the areal focus for
showers and storms may shift slightly each day and at this
stage, it is difficult to pinpoint where that will be.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 during the afternoon
and low to mid 70s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues this week. An upper level ridge
will creep into the Carolinas by mid week and begin to gradually
move eastward again toward next weekend. This could shift the
bulk of our rain chances inland, but southerly flow will
maintain deep moisture and temperatures in the upper 80s and low
90s will routinely generate afternoon instability over all areas.
Humid surface air will also bring shower chances to the coast
during the morning hours yielding a wet forecast from sunrise to
sunset. Happy to report that the long stretch of brutally hot
temperatures seems to take a break over the next week or so.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Once low clouds and fog burn off this morning expectations for the
valid taf period remain the same as the past several days with VFR
to dominate with brief MVFR/IFR interruptions due to passing
convection, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Extended Outlook... There is continued good potential for
visibility reduction from heavy rain in showers and
thunderstorms each day through next Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Outside showers and storms, expect S to SW
winds 10 to 15 KT with seas of 2 to 4 FT.

Sunday through Wednesday Night... Bermuda high brings
consistency this week. Southerly flow during the afternoon
between 15-20 knots weakens and turns southwesterly overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms remain likely, especially overnight.
Coverage will decrease during the middle of next week as a mid
level ridge over the western Atlantic builds westward. SE swell
remains 2-3 feet at around 9 seconds through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...21/31
UPDATE...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...31
MARINE...21/31