192
FXUS62 KILM 181402
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an
approaching cold front today. The front will linger near or
north of the area through the weekend. Rain chances will remain
elevated through Monday with temperatures running near to
slightly below normal. Unsettled weather may continue into early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes for morning update. Still expect heat index values
right around 105. Cloud cover and convective development will
determine where heat index values top out. Still expect late
afternoon/evening convection given the environment with sea
breeze, Piedmont trough and differential heating all
contributing to storm development.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front north and west of the area will slowly approach today
and tonight as energy aloft passes through.  These features will
interact with moist, unstable air over the area to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon into the evening. A
few of the storms could be strong to severe.  Given the abundant
moisture available, locally heavy rain is possible but antecedent
soil and stream conditions should preclude flooding widespread
enough to warrant a watch attm. Highs today should reach the low to
mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.  Attm, temperatures
and dewpoints look to keep apparent temperatures below heat advisory
criteria but numbers approaching 105 are possible before the onset
of showers and storms, especially inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Somewhat unsettled conditions will continue into the
weekend as a front becomes stationary across the area with a broad
southwest flow aloft. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms will
continue across all areas. The highest pops occur Friday afternoon
and evening and once again overnight Saturday into Sunday. Overall
temperatures will hover near climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid level pattern will feature a mid level ridge over
the Atlantic and subtle to at times decent troughing across the
Central U.S. A broad southwest flow will persist across the
southeast as pops will generally remain above climatology. No
dramatic fronts and or air mass changes with temperatures at or near
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions occurring presently and expect it to continue until
showers and storms develop in the afternoon. For now, have prob
groups in the late afternoon with VCTS all terminals into the
evening. It likely won`t be stormy at all terminals all afternoon
and evening but showers and storms could persist for several hours
once they get going, particularly northern areas that are closer to
the front.

Extended Outlook...Potential for afternoon and evening MVFR/IFR from
showers and thunderstorms through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Will continue marginal SCA for SW winds of 15 to 20 KT with gusts to
25 KT for now.  If current trends continue, we may be able to cancel
at 6 AM but SW winds will remain frisky into this evening before
dropping off to 10 to 15 KT overnight. Seas will run 3 to 5 FT.


Friday through Monday...
The marine community will see winds...more typical of deep
summertime south to southwest at 10-15 knots probably moreso on the
lower end. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the spectrum
mainly consisting of shorter period wind waves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SHK/31