869
FXUS62 KILM 121501
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1101 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front along the Carolina coast will shift
slowly inland today into Saturday remaining the focal point for
showers and thunderstorms, some with very heavy rain. Next week
will turn hot again with only scattered storms, mainly in the
afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within a
confluence zone stretching from the Grand Strand northward
through Bladen and Robeson counties. With minimal capping and
plenty of warm, humid, and unstable air flowing in from the
southeast, expect shower and storm development to continue as
outflow spreads westward into the Pee Dee region towards a
stalled cold front. Further east towards the coast of the Cape
Fear region, a lack of focus brings some uncertainty in regards
to where and when showers and storms will develop. Differential
heating and outflow resulting from earlier storms further inland may
provide the necessary focus. This will bear watching through
midday and into this afternoon as this unstable airmass does not
need much of a bump to develop convection. Given anomalous
moisture, the flash flooding threat remains, but exactly where
it will focus is hard to pinpoint.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Risk of Flash Flooding across the Coastal Carolinas...

Lingering front or trough extending up from sfc low just off
the SC/GA coast will remain the focal point for shwrs and
thunderstorms through today as it pushes slowly inland. As the
boundary shifts inland, waves of low pressure will develop along
enhancing convergence and convective development. Although the
day will not be a complete washout in any one spot, plenty of
clouds and shwrs/tstms will be scattered across the area with a
very moist air mass in place. Pcp water values will remain close
to 2.5 inches leaving a loaded atmosphere capable of producing
very heavy rain in spots. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
and remain alert for any possible flood advisories or warnings
in your area through today. High temps today will be in the mid
to upper 80s with a very humid air mass in place. Warm and moist
weather will continue into tonight with temps holding in the
mid 70s for lows. The front will remain across the Coastal
Carolinas into tonight with intermittent shwrs and tstms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening sfc boundary persists over the area into Saturday, and in
conjunction with weak energy aloft and a plume of higher moisture
esp. near the coast, will lead to another day of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Weaker forcing than today should
lead to lower rain totals area-wide Saturday, however. A gradual
drying trend then into Saturday night. With the cloud cover and high
rain chances, not anticipating a Heat Advisory for Saturday, though
temps will still reach the low 90s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Hot and humid through the duration of the long term period, with
frequent chances for (mainly diurnal) showers and thunderstorms. A
Heat Advisory is at least possible most days, with high temps in the
mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints consistently in the
mid/upr 70s. Chances for rain, difficult to time this far out, are
found each day due to transient weak shortwaves aloft, daily sea
breezes, and the warm/moist environment.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly MVFR in intermittent shwrs/tstms through Friday as
lingering front pushes inland. Prevailing winds out of the
E-SE will come around to the S through today. Included periods
of shra/vcts with greater potential for more widespread tstms
inland after 17z.


Extended Outlook...The weekend gradually improves somewhat with
flight restrictions lessening and becoming more periodic. The
slow improvement continues into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Southeast winds will become more southerly
through today as low pressure off the SC coast shifts slowly inland
dragging a nearly stationary front slowly inland along with it.
The gradient tightens with gusts up to 25 kts and seas in the
northern waters from Surf City to the tip of Cape Fear reaching
6 ft. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory was issued for today. Closer
to shore, waves up to 3 to 5 ft are expected, with a building
southeasterly swell at 7 to 8 seconds.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Improving marine conditions this period following the SCA which
ends tonight. This as the aforementioned frontal boundary
weakens while shifting inland. Expect 10-15 kt S/SW winds to be
the norm, with 2-4 ft seas following the 3-5 ft seas daytime
Saturday, and mainly consisting of SE 7-9 second waves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ017-024-033-054-058-
     059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MAS/RGZ