Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
985 FXUS62 KILM 140834 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 434 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A heat wave will begin today and last into midweek. Afternoon thunderstorms will be more localized and scattered in coverage until a front reaches down into the Carolinas and stalls late Wednesday through Friday, increasing rain chances and hampering the dangerous heat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Elongated Bermuda ridging sfc and aloft will get suppressed south of the area this period resulting in westerly flow aloft. This will produce a downslope trajectory off the Appalachians along with compressional heating and drying out the atm column somewhat. Unfortunately at the sfc, this means warmer/hotter temps across the FA today with WSW winds backing to the S this aftn and evening. This will help compromise any lower dewpoints that try to mix down from aloft. When you combine the 90+ degree temps and dewpoints in the 70s to lower 80s, that spells heat indices AOA 105 degrees. Thus, a Heat Adv has been issued for the entire ILM CWA, including the immediate coast, with the hours 11am thru 7 pm highlighted. Mesoscale boundaries such as the sea breeze and inland sfc trof, will provide basically the only forcing avbl for tstorms to develop given the lack of any s/w trofs aloft in the vicinity. POPs generally kept in the low chance this aftn and evening with various MOS guidance keeping it altogether out of the fcst. Tonight will feature any dissipating convective debris clouds early on followed by mainly clear skies. Fog and/or low stratus inland may become an issue if winds decouple aided by any rainfall from the days convection. Widespread 70s to near 80 at the coast for tonights lows. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The heat will peak during this period and combine with high humidity to produce Heat Warning conditions Mon and possibly into Tuesday. Temps will rise into the mid 90s across much of the area on Mon and Tues, but Mon will see some places in the upper 90s. Overall, a hot and humid period as ridge stretches across much of the south with heights above 590 dem and 850 temps peaking around 21c on Monday. Diurnal convection should be limited both Mon and Tues mainly due to local effects as Piedmont trough dominates inland and sea breeze and southwesterly flow around Bermuda High lead to convergence and lift. Therefore will maintain chc of rain in the scattered range but should die off each evening as the sun sets and heating dies down. Should see a few places getting a chance of a good shot of rain but overall plenty of sunshine with some aftn cu development on Mon. Tues could see more in the way of clouds, especially mid to high clouds as a minor perturbation in the upper level flow may ride across the Southeast allowing debris clouds to make it into the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Although ridge tries to build in from the east, a broad mid to upper trough begins to dig down from the Great Lakes towards the Gulf coast and it becomes more amplified as ridge builds up across the Desert Southwest. This will weaken the ridging over us and this trough aloft will push a cold front and Piedmont trough east and south with increasing moist southerly flow across the Carolinas that will enhance convective development especially Thurs and Fri. Pcp water values will reach back up near 2.4 inches Wed through Fri. A very warm and moist air mass will remain in place and potential for heat advisory conditions will continue on Wed, but by Thurs and Fri temps will be modified by clouds and increase of shower activity and storms and lowering of heights. Have continued to lower pops a bit through most of the period with highest values on Thurs. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Could observe periodic MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or vsby from fog and/or low stratus, mainly across the inland terminals early this morning. Boundary layer SW-W winds will provide enough mixing to counter BR/low ceilings at the coastal terminals this morning. Mainly VFR today thru this evening, but enough threat of tstorms along an inland progressive sea breeze warrants VCTS for all terminals, may need to upgrade to POP30 at next update. Winds generally SW-W 5 kt or less this morning becoming S 10-15 kt across the coastal terminals by midday thru early aftn as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland, reaching FLO/LBT mid to late aftn. Extended Outlook... High pressure will bring the return of a more typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven convection with brief restrictions possible daily. VFR should otherwise dominate outside of any early morning fog/low cigs. By Thu, a cold front will drop into the Carolinas accompanied by more organized convection with an increase in coverage. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Stalled frontal boundary across the Central Carolinas will morph into a sfc trof this morning and persistent into next week. Bermuda high pressure will ridge south of the waters to Fl during this period. The ILM Coastal waters will lie between the 2 resulting in southwesterly winds at 10-15 kt thru the period, except around 15 kt with g20 kt nearshore possible this aftn and evening due to the sea breeze development and push inland. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft and dominated by a SE swell at 8+ second periods. Short period wind waves, especially this aftn/evening, will keep significant seas closer to 4 ft. Possible isolated convection nearshore aided by forcing from the sea breeze. Monday through Thursday... Bermuda High will dominate the weather through much of the week with S-SW winds. Winds should remain in the 10 to 15 kt range with higher gusts in aftn sea breeze and influence of Piedmont trough through Tues but a cold front approaching late Wed into Thurs should push winds up to 15 to 20 kts. A longer period SE swell around 2 ft and 8 to 9 seconds will mix in. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will be lowered to moderate today as SE swell lowers a bit, down to 2 ft and high tide will occur during middle of the afternoon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/RGZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM