698
FXUS62 KILM 151750
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
150 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above-normal heat and humidity will persist into midweek.
Afternoon showers and storms will remain isolated to widely
scattered through midweek until a front reaches down into the
Carolinas and stalls late in the week. Expect more widespread
or numerous showers and thunderstorms later Wed thru Fri. The
front should lift back northward over the weekend, bringing a
return to a more typical summertime pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with the latest update. Likely to see some heat
indices peaking over Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110
degrees) once again this afternoon, especially near the northern
SC coast and eastern portions of SE NC, but they should be
limited enough in coverage and duration to not warrant an
upgrade from the ongoing Heat Advisory.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main story will be the heat, with another Heat Advisory now in
effect for the entire ILM CWA from 10am thru 8pm today.
Expecting widespread 105 thru 109 heat indices, with a few
spots possibly eclipsing 110 degrees for a minimal time. If the
high resolution models indicate a longer 110+ occurrence, then
an Excessive Heat Warning would be warranted. Please remain
vigilant with the ongoing heat! Boosted tonight`s lows with
some additional 80 degree lows now possible accompanied with 80
degree dewpoints. Yikes, talk about uncomfortable sleeping wx
if no AC. Hot temps also in store, with triple digit reading max
temps again possible today.

The sfc features that affect the ILM CWA will be Bermuda high
pressure ridging to Florida, a trof extending across the
Central Carolinas and the daily evolution of the aftn/evening
sea breeze and its push inland. The mid and upper level
ridging will suppress further southward, leaving westerly flow
aloft. A progged subsidence inversion roughly extending between
600 and 450 mb will help curtail any widespread convection.
However, the sfc trof and sea breeze will provide enough forcing
combined with avbl instability for convection to initiate. Low
chance POPs will be advertised. PWs will be slowly increasing
to above 2 inches and generally staying just above 2 inches
tonight and especially into Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The heat continues on unabated Tuesday and Wednesday with
really no discernible change in the pattern. Local guidance is
showing Tuesday more of an excessive heat warning type of day
most likely due to deeper moisture in the profiles and this
seems reasonable. As for convection confidence is low as it
appears at first glance there is little impetus for activity but
at the end of the day the meandering deep convection seems to
cover a lot of ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pops are the focus of the extended period and really
still a bit to far out in time to add a lot of detail. The
usual mechanisms for this type of coverage are in play and they
include a decent mid level trough...surface front and high
precipitable water values. As for temperatures a significant
cool down is in order based primarily on all of the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR for the most part across the SE NC and NE
SC terminals through 18Z Tuesday. Low risk for brief impacts
from showers/storms into this evening and again after daybreak
Tuesday. There is also a low risk for restrictions from
stratus (and maybe light fog) late tonight, especially in NC.

Extended Outlook... Decent chance for restrictions from
showers/storms Wednesday with even better chances Thursday through
Saturday as a cold front moves closer to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...This period will feature the Bermuda high
pressure ridge axis extending to Florida. Meanwhile, a sfc trof
will orient across the central Carolinas. Between the 2 lies the
ILM coastal waters where a semi-tightened sfc pg will exist thru
the period. Generally looking at SW 10-15 kt thru the period
except during the afternoon/evening sea breeze and overnight
low level surges, could observe a solid 15 kt or 15 to 20 kt at
times. Winds nearshore will back to a more southerly direction
once the sea breeze becomes established and pushes inland. Seas
generally in the 2 to 4 ft range with its composition
consisting of a SE swell around 8 second periods and short
period SW wind waves.

Tuesday through Friday Night...South to southwest winds of
15-20 knots perhaps a little stronger at times will be in place
through the mid week period. Later in the period wind speeds
diminish somewhat as the gradient becomes less defined as the
inland trough weakens. Significant seas while overall in a range
of 2-4 feet may see some five footers in and out Tuesday and
Wednesday but should stay below headline criteria.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...DCH/SHK