Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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995 FXUS62 KILM 160251 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1051 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of the upcoming week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase each day as a cold front approaches and stalls to our northwest. && .UPDATE... No significant changes with the 10 PM EDT update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will continue to nose in from the east while a trough lingers inland. This will maintain above normal temperatures and plentiful moisture across the area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening, mainly inland along and ahead of the sea breeze, will diminish this evening with generally dry conditions expected the rest of the night. Although we can`t rule out a few damaging wind gusts our main concern is for locally heavy rainfall flooding given the high PWATs and weak storm motions. Lows tonight should mainly be in the mid to upper 70s inland with highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 90s away from the slightly cooler coast. Although heat indices should be a bit lower tomorrow given the slightly lower temps, we still expect another Heat Advisory will be needed for heat indices peaking generally in the 105 to 108 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As the mid level ridge starts to weaken the short term will see increasingly vort-laded westerly flow. While the heat will continue it may be tempered slightly by the increase in cloud and convective coverage. In fact, Wednesday may fall just short of Heat Advisory criteria especially if storms fire early, a distinct possibility. Forecast soundings are showing moisture through a very deep layer leading to PW values of 2.25" so pockets of heavy rain appear possible. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Frontal boundary approaching from the NW on Thursday and models are showing a very active day of convection with the continued possibility of heavy rainfall. The front makes its closest approach on Friday making it the possible candidate for the most unsettled. WPC seems to agree as Friday has their highest QPF forecast. Guidance has pretty similar POPs and rainfall depiction through the weekend however. Perhaps all of the rain will prevent the front from washing out quickly as they often do in July this far south. Daytime highs will be fairly close to climatology whereas nights will run a bit warm due to cloud cover. Even beyond the weekend models are pretty aggressive in their depiction of rainfall but with the weakening boundary retreating slightly northward we have gone a bit below most guidance. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR this evening as remnant convective outflows cause variable wind directions and brief periods of low clouds. By 03Z, all remaining showers and winds should yield to the surface pressure pattern. Light SW winds will bring VFR. Boundary layer winds remain mixed tonight, but with the added surface moisture, some VIS and CIG issues could occur by morning. Ground fog is possible in areas that received heavy rainfall today. Unlikely to see fog develop elsewhere without this additional soil moisture. Boundary layer winds could bring pockets of stratus, specifically upwind of saturated soils. This would put both FLO/LBT with a chance for IFR stratus. Confidence remains low at this time. VFR for much of the area on Tuesday outside of another round of isolated afternoon convection. Extended Outlook... Decent chance for restrictions from showers/storms Wednesday with even better chances Thursday through Saturday as a cold front moves closer to the area. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will edge in from the east while a trough lingers inland. This will lead to fairly typical summertime conditions with periods of higher winds, mainly from the afternoon/evening sea breeze and nocturnal surging. However, winds should mostly stay below 20 kt with seas 4 ft or less so we are not expecting to need a Small Craft Advisory. Tuesday night through Saturday... South to southwesterly winds expected through the entire period as high pressure remains centered east of Bermuda. Early in the period the gradient will be slightly tightened by the Piedmont trough and there may be a few gusts to 25kt but not anticipating Small Craft Advisory at this point. Later in the period a front will stall well inland weakening the gradient over the waters to about the tune of a one category decrease in wind speeds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM