030
FXUS62 KILM 160615
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of the upcoming
week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase each day as
a cold front approaches and stalls to our northwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes with the 10 PM EDT update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will continue to nose in
from the east while a trough lingers inland. This will maintain
above normal temperatures and plentiful moisture across the area.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening, mainly inland
along and ahead of the sea breeze, will diminish this evening with
generally dry conditions expected the rest of the night. Although we
can`t rule out a few damaging wind gusts our main concern is for
locally heavy rainfall flooding given the high PWATs and weak storm
motions.

Lows tonight should mainly be in the mid to upper 70s inland with
highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 90s away from the slightly
cooler coast. Although heat indices should be a bit lower tomorrow
given the slightly lower temps, we still expect another Heat
Advisory will be needed for heat indices peaking generally in the
105 to 108 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the mid level ridge starts to weaken the short term will see
increasingly vort-laded westerly flow. While the heat will continue
it may be tempered slightly by the increase in cloud and convective
coverage. In fact, Wednesday may fall just short of Heat Advisory
criteria especially if storms fire early, a distinct possibility.
Forecast soundings are showing moisture through a very deep layer
leading to PW values of 2.25" so pockets of heavy rain appear
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Frontal boundary approaching from the NW on Thursday and models are
showing a very active day of convection with the continued
possibility of heavy rainfall. The front makes its closest approach
on Friday making it the possible candidate for the most unsettled.
WPC seems to agree as Friday has their highest QPF forecast.
Guidance has pretty similar POPs and rainfall depiction through the
weekend however. Perhaps all of the rain will prevent the front
from washing out quickly as they often do in July this far south.
Daytime highs will be fairly close to climatology whereas nights
will run a bit warm due to cloud cover. Even beyond the weekend
models are pretty aggressive in their depiction of rainfall but with
the weakening boundary retreating slightly northward we have gone a
bit below most guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR to dominate this period. Boundary layer SW winds stay active
enough to keep fog at bay but still can not rule out low level
stratus. For now will include as a 3 hr tempo group inland
terminals. Otherwise, the next shot for flight restrictions will
come after 18Z, like previous days. Will include VCTS for the
aftn/evening across all terminals but provide a prob30 tsra group
for the inland terminals. After sunset, will deal with decaying
tstorms with convective debris BKN mid and upper level clouds.

Extended Outlook...Periodic chance for flight restrictions from
showers/storms Wednesday Wed. Prevailing flight restrictions
possible from Thu through Sat as a cold front stalls in the
vicinity combined with weak impulses aloft passing across
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will edge in from the east
while a trough lingers inland. This will lead to fairly typical
summertime conditions with periods of higher winds, mainly from the
afternoon/evening sea breeze and nocturnal surging. However, winds
should mostly stay below 20 kt with seas 4 ft or less so we are not
expecting to need a Small Craft Advisory.

Tuesday night through Saturday... South to southwesterly winds
expected through the entire period as high pressure remains centered
east of Bermuda. Early in the period the gradient will be slightly
tightened by the Piedmont trough and there may be a few gusts to
25kt but not anticipating Small Craft Advisory at this point. Later
in the period a front will stall well inland weakening the gradient
over the waters to about the tune of a one category decrease in wind
speeds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/RJB