483
FXUS62 KILM 161028
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
628 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail thru Wed as Bermuda high
pressure and a Carolinas sfc trof interact. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will occur today and Wed but increasing
chances and coverage expected Thu thru Sat as a cold front drops
south and stalls in the vicinity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning
(EHW) for the entire ILM CWA. Heat indices will be borderline
EHW but given the NWS Heat Risk Map illustrating a good portion
of the ILM CWA within the "EXTREME" (the highest of 5
categories) category, opted for the more serious EHW.

Atlantic sfc high pressure ridging from Bermuda to Florida
combined with a sfc trof across the west/central NC and SC area,
spells hot and humid conditions under an active SW wind
that also will remain active at night. This the result of a
tightened sfc pg that will persist across the FA between the 2
wx aforementioned wx features. Like Mon, tstorms will again
have an opportunity to occur from mid-afternoon the mid-evening
before decaying altogether by midnight. Looking at pops of 20-40
percent with coverage ranging from isolated to scattered. The
sea breeze and initiation along the inland Carolinas sfc trof
will spark interacting outflows to keep convection going into
the evening. Unlike previous nights, toward daybreak Wed, an
upper level impulse will approach from the south accompanied by
shower and thunderstorm activity. This may reach the
Georgetown/Williamsburg area at the end of the tonight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The transition to a more active pattern will be well underway
Wednesday although arguably...depending on how things play out
today the past few days have seen quite a bit of convection.
Global guidance and to an extent high resolution shows after
convection moves offshore Wednesday morning the inland areas and
eventually the coast lights up with deep convection. It appears
the enhancement of the inland trough is in part responsible for
the coverage Wednesday while Thursday more subtle height falls
are added to the mix. Overall good coverage expected both
afternoon and evening periods. With no changes in the air mass
heat related headlines are once again possible both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
No changes really necessary to the extended forecast as it
continues to look rather unsettled. I do like the fact guidance
has trended a bit higher with max temperatures as although
unsettled conditions will be in place the numbers seemed a
little cool with mid 80s or so. There is a subtle drying trend
Sunday into Monday as the Bermuda Ridge seems to build back to
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR to dominate this period. Boundary layer SW winds stay
active enough to keep fog at bay early this morning and again
late tonight. The potential for flight restrictions this period
will come after 18Z, like previous days. Will include VCTS for
the aftn/evening across all terminals but provide a prob30 tsra
group for the inland terminals given what occurred Mon. After
sunset, will deal with decaying tstorms with dissipating
convective debris mid and upper level clouds. SW winds will
dominate and remain active thru the period. The coastal
terminals will again observe an active sea breeze with
occasionally gusts to 20+ kt this aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...Periodic chance for flight restrictions from
showers/storms Wed. Periodic prevailing flight restrictions
possible Thu through Sat as a cold front stalls in the vicinity
combined with weak impulses aloft passing across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Bermuda high pressure ridging to Florida and
the sfc trof across the western Carolinas will combine to yield
a semi-tightened sfc pg across the waters thru tonight. This
will alone produce SW winds 10-15 kt. Add an active sea breeze
followed with nocturnal surging, ie. the presence of an active
low level jet. The 2 features will being SW winds up to 15 to 20
kt with some infrequent g25 kt. Seas generally start off 2 to 4
ft and build to 3 to 5 ft on the cusp of possibly reaching 6 ft
across the outer waters late tonight. The SE swell at 9 second
periods has decayed-some but will remain present and accounted
for thru this period. Short period, 5 seconds or less, wind
waves will become the primary wave in the seas power spectrum.
Thunderstorm activity rather null and void early on, looks to
increase mainly late tonight as an upper impulse approaches from
the south.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Stronger inland trough
combined with Bermuda High pressure will keep a decent southwest
flow of 15-20 knots over the area Wednesday and Thursday. Its
possible the flow will be somewhat distorted at times due to
convection. Wind speeds decrease somewhat Friday through the
weekend as the aforementioned features weaken. Significant seas
will be 3-5 feet early on with the higher winds with but settle
down in time to 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents - Strong Longshore Currents:
With an increasing gradient between the inland trough and
Bermuda High Pressure...a strong south to north longshore
current is expected today across the east facing beaches. A
moderate risk for rip currents is expected as well for all
areas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT
     this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-
     059.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK