722
FXUS62 KILM 170012
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
812 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through mid week. An
approaching cold front will bring high rain chances and slightly
cooler temperatures later this week into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection has waned for the evening. Some stratiform rain
remains in parts of the Grand Strand and Pee Dee regions, but
that too will be dying out over the next hour or two. Made minor
adjustments to the hourly rain chances.

Elsewhere, the Excessive Heat Warning from earlier today was
allowed to expire at 7 PM EDT. Had to follow that right up with
a Heat Advisory for Wednesday, which goes from 11 AM EDT to 8
PM EDT.

Lastly, there is a high risk of rip currents for the coastal
Pender, New Hanover, Brunswick, and Horry County beaches
Wednesday. The coastal Georgetown County beaches have a moderate
risk of rip currents. There is a strong south to north longshore
current along all of the east-facing beaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bermuda High and western Atlantic 5h ridge remain in place beyond
Wed, ensuring the hot and humid conditions continue in the near
term. Ongoing convection this afternoon will persist and expand
through late afternoon before weakening in the evening, much like it
did on Mon. Elevated boundary level moisture may lead to some low
clouds overnight, but winds will be more than strong enough to
prevent fog development. The mixing along with increased moisture
and cloud cover will keep lows tonight above to well above climo.
Along the coast can expected widespread lows 80 or above.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected Wed with the
Piedmont trough and sea breeze are likely to be the starting point
for storms. Outflow from initial convection will lead to additional
storm development. Difference on Wed will be the amount of mid-level
support. Several weak impulses will move across the area which will
enhance storm develop and increase storm coverage. Cannot rule out a
lone strong/severe storm, but the overall environment is not
supportive of an organized severe threat. Storm motion should be
enough to keep flooding from being a larger scale concern despite a
warm cloud layer approaching 14k ft. The increased storm coverage
will lead to more cloud cover which will keep afternoon highs a bit
cooler than the past few days. Temperatures and dewpoints Wed
afternoon will still be high and may warrant a Heat Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Localized flooding from heavy rainfall possible

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:

A stalling cold front will move southeast toward SE NC and NE SC,
possibly pushing into the area Thursday night. Expect hot and humid
weather to continue through the period although not quite as
oppressive as we`ve seen recently given the increased cloud/rain
coverage. Heat indices should peak at less than Heat Advisory levels
(105 degrees) Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will be above normal
given the abundant levels of moisture and frontal/shortwave forcing.
As usual, rainfall timing and amounts are more uncertain but should
generally peak Thu aftn/eve. Some of the rainfall will be heavy at
times and could lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly-drained areas Thu aftn/eve.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Localized flooding from heavy rainfall possible

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A stalling cold front over or just west of the area Friday
should push back inland and weaken into early next week as
Atlantic high pressure strengthens. Although moisture levels
will remain high, we should start to see a bit lower rain
chances early next week and have trended our rain chances down just
a tad. Some of the rainfall should be heavy at times and thus
localized flooding will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR through the 00Z TAF period, with exceptions. Southwest
winds overnight will prevent fog from developing and drier air
at the top of the mixed layer should keep low stratus development
very limited. Convection should start to pick up by 15-16Z,
particularly inland. May have VCSH or VCTS at KFLO or KLBT by
that point. Convection becomes more widespread by 18-19Z, though
it`s hard to pinpoint when each of the terminals will be
impacted. Went with PROB30 groups to represent TSRA generally
from 20-24Z. Storms may bring flight restrictions down to IFR at
times.

Extended Outlook...Potential for daily afternoon/evening
MVFR/IFR through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday: Bermuda High and Piedmont trough combo will
maintain southwest flow through Wed. Gradient will tighten Wed
afternoon into evening, which may result in a few gusts around
25 kt, but frequency and spatial coverage appear such that a
Small Craft Advisory will not be required. Seas 3-4 ft through
tonight bump to 3-5 ft later Wed as the southwest flow becomes a
bit stronger. The south to southwest wind wave will continue to
be the dominant wave.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Atlantic high pressure will
edge in from the east while a trough lingers inland. This will
lead to fairly typical summertime conditions with periods of
higher winds, mainly from the afternoon/evening sea breeze and
nocturnal surging. However, winds should mostly stay below 20 kt
with seas 5 ft or less, although could come pretty close to Small
Craft Advisory levels Wednesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents - Strong Longshore Currents:
With an increasing gradient between the inland trough and
Bermuda High Pressure...a strong south to north longshore
current is expected today across the east facing beaches. A
moderate risk for rip currents is expected as well for all
areas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...III/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM