Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
420 FXUS62 KILM 170812 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through today with a better chance for convection than previous days. Thu thru much of the upcoming weekend, shower and thunderstorms will become more widespread as a front drops and stalls in the vicinity. Look for the oppressive heat to come to a temporary end Thu thru early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today will be a repeat of the previous days with the exception of a higher coverage of the midday thru mid evening convection. This will be aided by the usual suspects, an active sea breeze that may not progress as far inland like previous days given modest SW-WSW flow aloft. Will also have a sfc trof across the central Carolinas, that will drop further southeast as a sfc cold front upstream slowly drops toward the SE. The 1 kicker will be the weak/subtle impulses aloft that pass across the region further aiding convection. This may allow tstorm activity to persist well into this evening or possibly into the overnight period. POPs will be fcst hier than previous days, in the modest to high chance category. PWs progged in the 2.1 to 2.2 inch range. Expect some gully-washers with storms having atleast some movement compared to previous days. Training of tstorms could result in localized flooding. And could observe SPS worthy tstorms with synoptic winds in the lower levels increasing later today and tonight. Given the potential clouds/pcpn, highs today will not reach levels like previous days. But the humidity and dewpoint levels will be slightly hier. Combined, heat indices will reach Heat Adv thresholds and given the experimental NWS Heat Risk map for today illustrating Category 4, Major for the entire ILM CWA, will continue the Heat Advisory already raised. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Approaching mid level trough along with the attendant frontal systems/troughs will lead to an unsettled couple of days Thursday and Friday. Global guidance has been signaling for a few days now a good convective line moving across Thursday evening and SPC has issued a marginal risk for day two. Near term/high resolution guidance is on board as well. It also appears the atmosphere needs a break after this line thus Friday`s convection could be later in the day/evening as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Unsettled pattern continues and although the synoptic forcing fades in time as the mid level trough lifts/fills...a broad moisture laden flow will be in place. This area is situated in between the Bermuda High to the east and an expected mid level low in the Central Plains. Temperatures remain on course to drop to near seasonal values and considering the past several days...that will be something. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Generally VFR through the 06Z TAF period, with exceptions. Southwest winds overnight will prevent fog from developing but may have to deal with MVFR low stratus especially across the coastal terminals. Main convection should start to pick up by 16Z. Will indicate VCTS as a starting point for potential development, followed by PROB30 groups thru the aftn into mid-evening. Convection may bring flight restrictions to periodic MVFR/IFR. SW winds will dominate the 24 hrs with gustiness, mainly this aftn and possibly extending thru the night, especially at the coastal terminals, given the decent nocturnal low level jet. Extended Outlook...Continued potential for daily afternoon/evening MVFR/IFR convection Thu thru Sun. Activity may persist thruout Thu and Fri nights given the frontal boundary stalled in the vicinity. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...The area waters will lie in a tightened sfc pg between Bermuda High pressure, ridging to Florida, and the sfc trof across the Central Carolinas. Both combined will maintain decent southwest flow through tonight. SEa breeze, may be more pinned to the coast than previous days, will add to the winds especially nearshore. Models indicate a nocturnal low level jetting, with SW winds progged at 25-35 kt just off the deck. Will see some of this mix to the ocean sfc at times. Given the aforementioned features, borderline SCA will be raised for the entire ILM CWA, Noon today thru 9am Thu. Seas will run 3 to 5 ft today, 3 to 6 ft tonight, with the 6 footers across the NC Waters from Cape Fear northward. The locally produced wind wave at 3 to 6 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum, with a continued ever present SE swell at 8+ second periods. Thunderstorm activity over the Atl waters, mainly just offshore. Could see activity move off the mainland this aftn/evening given progged storm motions. Predawn nocturnal Atl convection may move across the local waters. Thursday through Sunday Night...Residual higher winds and seas will be in place Thursday perhaps warranting an extension of the headline but it appears marginal at best. The gradient between the Piedmont Trough and Bermuda High Pressure dissipates Friday and as a result the south to southwest flow will drop considerably to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will plunge as well dipping to near two feet at times but a range of 2-4 feet seems reasonable. Some prolonged and widespread convection may distort wind fields as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents - Strong Longshore Currents: With an increasing gradient between the inland trough and Bermuda High Pressure...Strong low level winds warrant a high risk for rip currents all beaches today outside of Georgetown County. Strong south to north longshore currents can be expected as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK