Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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190 FXUS63 KICT 131939 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pesky shower/storm chances will linger through tonight. - Scorching stretch of Summer heat looks to peak on Monday! - Turning cooler by mid-week with some shower/storm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Despite continued/gradual warming at or below 700 mb, the temperatures aloft closer to 500 mb remained relatively cool. This continues to promote isolated to widely scattered elevated convection where there remains sufficient mid-level moisture potential instability within the weakly perturbed northerly flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge aloft. This has had some effect on early afternoon heating, though enough late day sunshine is expected to realize late day highs close to the going forecast. The rest of the forecast remains on track with respect to the going Heat Advisory and day over day warming resulting in the pinnacle of the heat peaking on Monday afternoon across much of the area. Timing of the anticipated stronger surface cold front on Tuesday is somewhat in question, though south central and southeast Kansas stand the better chance to languish one more day in the more intense heat. If this trend continues then the Heat Advisory may need to be extended into Tuesday for these areas with later forecasts. As a significant upper trof pivots eastward from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes through mid-week, a welcome much cooler/slightly below climo airmass will advect south across mid-America. While there will be chances for a period of mainly post-frontal showers/storms Tuesday night through Wednesday night, it appears drier air will be more progressive in overspreading the area associated with the large Midwest low level anticyclone. So the main theme for later in the week will be the more tolerable below climo temperatures for Kansas as the more intense heat persists across parts of the western conus as the upper ridge builds northward from the interior West into the Canadian Rockies. Darmofal && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds will gust to 25-30kts (35kts central KS) across the area through this afternoon and evening before gusts diminish tonight. Isolated showers and storms continue to fester early this afternoon and may have a hard time shutting off. Additional isolated storms will be possible again tonight area wide. Low confidence on exact locations and coverage thus did not include any mentions in TAFs, will amend as needed. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...KMB