187
FXUS63 KICT 081111
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
611 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for storms over southeast Kansas Today-Tuesday,
  severe weather is not expected

- Temperatures will gradually warm for later in the week and
  especially on the weekend, heat indices over 100 degrees
  likely for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Showers and storms look to develop over southeast Kansas this
afternoon into tonight where high precipitable water axis will
reside. Not expecting severe weather with any of this activity but
there could be pockets of heavy rainfall. Meanwhile remnants of
tropical system Beryl will move northeast from eastern Texas today
into southeast Missouri by Tuesday. Showers and a few storms could
affect far southeast Kansas on Tuesday. Models show an embedded
upper level wave dropping southward through the backside of upper
level trough axis from eastern Nebraska into Missouri on Wednesday.
This could spark off some diurnally driven showers/storms given the
cooler mid-level temperatures. Looks like this activity will remain
northeast of the area. Temperatures will gradually warm for
Wednesday through Friday with dry weather expected.

GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ensembles all in decent agreement of upper level high
pressure building over the Rockies and gradually shifting eastward
towards the central plains for the weekend. This will cause the heat
dome to spread eastward with daytime highs of upper 90s to 100s
expected. Heat indices over 100 degrees for most locations is
likely. The longer range models are showing the hot and dry weather
pattern continuing into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light winds and VFR prevail across the region this morning with
some SCT-BKN cirrus. A moist and uncapped airmass is anticipated
this afternoon with some scattered showers and storms
anticipated across parts of southeast Kansas. Introduced a VCTS
at KCNU after 21Z but higher probabilities for showers and
storms are expected to remain further east of the area. Light
and variable winds are anticipated through the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM