Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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266 FXUS63 KICT 141126 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 626 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A smattering of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms through about mid this morning. - Hot above average temperatures through Monday. - A few storms possible Monday evening-night over central and north-central Kansas. - A return to cooler weather and off-and-on thunderstorm chances by late Tuesday, persisting through at least next weekend or early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Similar to the past few nights, a smattering of hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms is expected through about mid-morning across portions of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, due to persistent weak to modest mid-level warm advection underneath a subtle mid-upper disturbance approaching from the north. Available instability and effective shear is limited given how high based this activity is (around 12,000 ft AGL), so severe weather is not expected, although cannot rule out small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain with the strongest cells. Otherwise, hot temperatures and breezy/gusty south winds will continue today and Monday. Will continue the heat advisory through Monday evening, as afternoon through early evening heat indices will exceed 100-105 degrees both days. A cold front approaching from the north should be a focus for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening-night, mainly over the northern half of Kansas. The main concern with this activity will be locally strong to severe wind gusts given high cloud bases. Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a pattern change to cooler and off-an-on wet weather is anticipated by late Tuesday, and persisting through at least next weekend or early next week. The culprits will be longwave upper troughing becoming established across the central and eastern CONUS, driving a cold front south into Mid-America. The latest guidance suggests these off-and-on thunderstorm chances will be greatest late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, and then again Saturday through early next week. Periodic bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, given a favorable combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A smattering of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will impact portions of central and eastern Kansas through about mid-morning. The strongest activity will be capable of very small hail, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds. Otherwise, breezy/gusty south winds will prevail today. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK