Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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187 FXUS63 KICT 081111 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 611 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for storms over southeast Kansas Today-Tuesday, severe weather is not expected - Temperatures will gradually warm for later in the week and especially on the weekend, heat indices over 100 degrees likely for the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Showers and storms look to develop over southeast Kansas this afternoon into tonight where high precipitable water axis will reside. Not expecting severe weather with any of this activity but there could be pockets of heavy rainfall. Meanwhile remnants of tropical system Beryl will move northeast from eastern Texas today into southeast Missouri by Tuesday. Showers and a few storms could affect far southeast Kansas on Tuesday. Models show an embedded upper level wave dropping southward through the backside of upper level trough axis from eastern Nebraska into Missouri on Wednesday. This could spark off some diurnally driven showers/storms given the cooler mid-level temperatures. Looks like this activity will remain northeast of the area. Temperatures will gradually warm for Wednesday through Friday with dry weather expected. GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ensembles all in decent agreement of upper level high pressure building over the Rockies and gradually shifting eastward towards the central plains for the weekend. This will cause the heat dome to spread eastward with daytime highs of upper 90s to 100s expected. Heat indices over 100 degrees for most locations is likely. The longer range models are showing the hot and dry weather pattern continuing into the following week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Light winds and VFR prevail across the region this morning with some SCT-BKN cirrus. A moist and uncapped airmass is anticipated this afternoon with some scattered showers and storms anticipated across parts of southeast Kansas. Introduced a VCTS at KCNU after 21Z but higher probabilities for showers and storms are expected to remain further east of the area. Light and variable winds are anticipated through the period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...MWM