Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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123
FXUS63 KICT 090533
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms tonight across southeast KS with pockets of
  heavy rain possible.

- Return to heat for the end of the work week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently have what is left of Beryl tracking across far
southeast TX with shortwave troughing extending from the Western
Great Lakes region into north central KS. Meanwhile, upper
ridging continues to hold strong over the Western CONUS. At the
surface, have a weak area of high pressure from western Nebraska
through Western KS with a stationary front extending from
central MO into eastern OK.

Band of showers and storms currently stretches from southern MO
into southeast OK and is associated with low level convergence
from Beryl. This area of showers and storms will continue to
slowly lift northeast and will affect parts of southeast KS
tonight. With a very high PW airmass in place, the main threat
tonight will be high rainfall rates and very localized flooding.
However, confidence is high that the more widespread flooding
will be east and southeast of the forecast area. By Tue morning,
remnants of Beryl will be tracking across southern AR and into
far southeast MO by the late afternoon hours. Still looks like
the bulk of the rainfall with this system will stay east of our
area, affecting much of southern MO on Tue. This system will
continue moving quickly off to the northeast and will be moving
into the Great Lakes region on Wed with good model agreement on
another piece of energy diving south across far Eastern Nebraska
and IA on Wed. This impulse will also stay far enough east to
limit rainfall chances.

For the end of the work week, the Western CONUS ridge will start
to slide slowly northeast and will allow warmer 850mb temps to
also migrate east. So starting Fri we are looking for a return
to above normal temps with many locations getting back to the
century mark by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Light winds and VFR will prevail for much of the area with the
exception in southeast Kansas. Residual low level moisture
within the pbl may result in some MVFR stratus as we move
through the predawn hours over parts of southeast Kansas.
Impacts from low cigs are expected to remain east of the Kansas
Turnpike possibly impacting KCNU before mixing out by 16Z. Light
and variable winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM