Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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123 FXUS63 KICT 090533 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms tonight across southeast KS with pockets of heavy rain possible. - Return to heat for the end of the work week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Currently have what is left of Beryl tracking across far southeast TX with shortwave troughing extending from the Western Great Lakes region into north central KS. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to hold strong over the Western CONUS. At the surface, have a weak area of high pressure from western Nebraska through Western KS with a stationary front extending from central MO into eastern OK. Band of showers and storms currently stretches from southern MO into southeast OK and is associated with low level convergence from Beryl. This area of showers and storms will continue to slowly lift northeast and will affect parts of southeast KS tonight. With a very high PW airmass in place, the main threat tonight will be high rainfall rates and very localized flooding. However, confidence is high that the more widespread flooding will be east and southeast of the forecast area. By Tue morning, remnants of Beryl will be tracking across southern AR and into far southeast MO by the late afternoon hours. Still looks like the bulk of the rainfall with this system will stay east of our area, affecting much of southern MO on Tue. This system will continue moving quickly off to the northeast and will be moving into the Great Lakes region on Wed with good model agreement on another piece of energy diving south across far Eastern Nebraska and IA on Wed. This impulse will also stay far enough east to limit rainfall chances. For the end of the work week, the Western CONUS ridge will start to slide slowly northeast and will allow warmer 850mb temps to also migrate east. So starting Fri we are looking for a return to above normal temps with many locations getting back to the century mark by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Light winds and VFR will prevail for much of the area with the exception in southeast Kansas. Residual low level moisture within the pbl may result in some MVFR stratus as we move through the predawn hours over parts of southeast Kansas. Impacts from low cigs are expected to remain east of the Kansas Turnpike possibly impacting KCNU before mixing out by 16Z. Light and variable winds will prevail through the period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...MWM