005
FXUS63 KICT 141716
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A smattering of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms through
  about mid this morning.

- Hot above average temperatures through Monday.

- A few storms possible Monday evening-night over central and
  north-central Kansas.

- A return to cooler weather and off-and-on thunderstorm chances
  by late Tuesday, persisting through at least next weekend or
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Similar to the past few nights, a smattering of hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms is expected through about mid-morning across
portions of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, due to
persistent weak to modest mid-level warm advection underneath a
subtle mid-upper disturbance approaching from the north. Available
instability and effective shear is limited given how high based this
activity is (around 12,000 ft AGL), so severe weather is not
expected, although cannot rule out small hail, gusty winds, and
brief heavy rain with the strongest cells.

Otherwise, hot temperatures and breezy/gusty south winds will
continue today and Monday. Will continue the heat advisory through
Monday evening, as afternoon through early evening heat indices will
exceed 100-105 degrees both days.

A cold front approaching from the north should be a focus for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening-night,
mainly over the northern half of Kansas. The main concern with this
activity will be locally strong to severe wind gusts given high
cloud bases.

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a pattern change to cooler
and off-an-on wet weather is anticipated by late Tuesday, and
persisting through at least next weekend or early next week. The
culprits will be longwave upper troughing becoming established
across the central and eastern CONUS, driving a cold front south
into Mid-America. The latest guidance suggests these off-and-on
thunderstorm chances will be greatest late Tuesday through Wednesday
evening, and then again Saturday through early next week. Periodic
bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, given a favorable
combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period.

An outflow boundary has moved across portions of central KS and
is slowly moving southward while becoming more diffuse. Winds
behind the diffusing boundary will temporarily be out of the
northeast before turning back to southerly. Thus tempo groups
were added to central KS sites.

Otherwise, southerly winds will prevail across the area, gusty
through the afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KMB