Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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926 FXUS63 KICT 110725 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong/severe storms are possible over southeast Kansas this afternoon thru the late evening hours - Heat will begin to build over the region for Friday into early next week with above 100 degree indices likely for the weekend through Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Elevated showers/thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a upper level wave inducing warm air advection across and mid level baroclinic zone early this morning. This slow moving area of lift could cause the activity to linger across the region for this morning and possibly into the afternoon. Meanwhile current water vapor satellite imagery shows another upper level wave over southern Minnesota moving southward down the backside of main upper trough axis. As this system moves southward another round of diurnally driven showers and storms should develop ahead of this system with cooler mid level temperatures. We could see additional storms bubble up over southeast Kansas for late this afternoon thru the late evening hours where higher precipitable water axis will reside. The shear/instability combination is supportive of a few strong to severe storms to develop for any updraft that is maintained. The upper level high pressure center will slowly migrate eastward from the Rockies towards the central plains for Friday into early next week. This will allow the heat dome to build across Kansas with hot above normal temperatures returning to the region. In addition, the heat and humidity will cause heat indices to surpass 100 for most locations for Sunday-Tuesday. Heading into Wednesday some of the long range models show a frontal boundary possibly venturing southward into Kansas which could bring some relief from the heat along with chances of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Isolated showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours while slowly dissipating, however most locations are expected to remain dry. Light southerly winds are anticipated with VFR prevailing at all locations. An isolated afternoon shower or storm may pop up this afternoon, although chances remain too low to mention in area TAFs. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...MWM