603
FXUS63 KICT 121110
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
610 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot with increasing humidity for this weekend

- A few showers and thunderstorms in Eastern Kansas today

- Continued hot into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Ridging with some moisture transport will dominate the region for
the next severals days.  This ridging will bring a significant
amount of subsidence but there will be a trailing frontal system in
far South Eastern Kansas today.  This will keep the chances for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm in the forecast for this afternoon
and into the evening. Any thunderstorms that do develop this
afternoon will be sub-severe. Temperatures for today and into the
weekend are expected to remain on the hot side. Temperatures are
expected to reach century mark but add in the high Tds, heat indices
are expected to push into the 100-105 range for most areas this
weekend. At this time, the hottest days look to be Sunday and Monday
with heat indices possibility pushing into he 103-107 range which
would require heat headlines. If this eventuality remains for follow
on forecast cycles, will entertain heat headlines at that time.

By Wednesday and into Thursday of next week the weather starts to
get interesting.  Most ensembles start indicating a fairly strong
frontal system approaching.  Additionally, monsoonal flow from the
desert southwest will be pushing close to the region.  This
combination will create a rather active weather pattern for Kansas.
This orientation does not lend itself to severe weather but it does
indicate the potential for strong thunderstorms, wide spread rain
then cooler temperatures possibilities.  Will need to see further
runs of the forecast before confidence can increase on this
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected for most the next 24
hours. However, a lingering weak frontal zone may support a few
hit-or-miss thunderstorms across the region this afternoon
through tonight. This activity will likely remain fairly
isolated, so did not include mention in 12z TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ADK