Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
278 FXUS63 KICT 200756 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 256 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms today through Sunday. - Below normal temperatures will remain in place through Tue with warming trend for middle/end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper circulation situated over southwest MN with unseasonably strong northwest flow over the Central/Southern Plains. There looks to also be a number of upper impulses embedded in the northwest flow with one of these, likely the result of convection, sinking south across western KS. Upper low is expected to sink south today from southern MN into northern IA with storms expected to continue this morning over west/central KS which will be aided by what looks to be an MCV tracking southeast across western KS. Regional 88D mosaic also shows what appears to be another MCV moving out of south central Nebraska and about to move into northeast/north central KS. These two features will be the main focus for showers and storms this morning. We may see some subsidence behind the MCV later this morning which may limit precip chances over central KS this afternoon. However, feel that with such cool mid level temps, any surface heating that takes place will likely result in some isolated/scattered shower or storm development. By 12z Sun, the upper low is expected to extend from central IL into southern IA with a series of upper perturbations in the northwest flow forecast to impact the area. This setup will keep scattered shower and storm chances around with eastern KS having the higher chances due to it being closer to what is left of the upper low. Strong upper ridging will remain from the Northern Rockies down into the Desert Southwest to start the work week with northwest flow aloft staying across the Plains. By Mon afternoon, upper trough will extend from the Western Great Lakes region into eastern OK. This will keep the better shower/storm chances over far southeast KS and especially southeast of the forecast area. There is some agreement between the GFS/ECMWF in additional upper energy tracking out of the Northern High Plains and across the area on Tue which may keep at least some small pops in the forecast. Still looking like that by Wed we will see the Western CONUS upper ridge start to build east which will allow for temps to warm back to seasonal normals. So for Wed-Fri, we will see highs back in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected throughout the TAF period, mainly across portions of central and south central KS. Variable winds are expected, turning from primarily southerly to more easterly thru the period. VFR conditions are forecast, though brief MVFR cigs/vis possible in storms. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KMB