907
FXUS63 KICT 201740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms today through Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures will remain in place through Tue
  with warming trend for middle/end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper circulation
situated over southwest MN with unseasonably strong northwest
flow over the Central/Southern Plains. There looks to also be a
number of upper impulses embedded in the northwest flow with
one of these, likely the result of convection, sinking south
across western KS.

Upper low is expected to sink south today from southern MN into
northern IA with storms expected to continue this morning over
west/central KS which will be aided by what looks to be an MCV
tracking southeast across western KS. Regional 88D mosaic also
shows what appears to be another MCV moving out of south central
Nebraska and about to move into northeast/north central KS.
These two features will be the main focus for showers and storms
this morning. We may see some subsidence behind the MCV later
this morning which may limit precip chances over central KS this
afternoon. However, feel that with such cool mid level temps,
any surface heating that takes place will likely result in some
isolated/scattered shower or storm development.

By 12z Sun, the upper low is expected to extend from central IL
into southern IA with a series of upper perturbations in the
northwest flow forecast to impact the area. This setup will keep
scattered shower and storm chances around with eastern KS
having the higher chances due to it being closer to what is
left of the upper low. Strong upper ridging will remain from the
Northern Rockies down into the Desert Southwest to start the
work week with northwest flow aloft staying across the Plains.
By Mon afternoon, upper trough will extend from the Western
Great Lakes region into eastern OK. This will keep the better
shower/storm chances over far southeast KS and especially
southeast of the forecast area. There is some agreement between
the GFS/ECMWF in additional upper energy tracking out of the
Northern High Plains and across the area on Tue which may keep
at least some small pops in the forecast.

Still looking like that by Wed we will see the Western CONUS
upper ridge start to build east which will allow for temps to
warm back to seasonal normals. So for Wed-Fri, we will see highs
back in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

In general, VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next
24 hours, but isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
may impact some TAF sites throughout the next day or so. The
best chances for storms this afternoon and evening (between 22Z
and 03Z) will be across south-central with additional showers
and storms across eastern and southeast Kansas later tonight.

A surface trough draped across the area is causing surface winds
to be quite variable. But in general, light southerly winds
should shift to light northerly or northeasterly winds
throughout the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC