577
FXUS63 KICT 202333
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms expected this afternoon and tonight; no
  severe weather expected

- Additional, small, rain chances Sunday through Tuesday

- Drying trend beyond the middle of next

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

As of 130 PM, a complex weather pattern remains positioned
across the area with multiple focal points for showers/storms.
The most obvious is an MCV positioned across northeast KS. This
MCV continues to maintain showers across east-central KS. The
next zone of showers extends from southeast KS into OK, within
the main midlevel trough axis. The 3rd zone is emerging across
portions of central KS, where a surface circulation is evident.
Latest satellite reveals a deepening cumulus field in the
vicinity of the surface circulation. The expectation is for
additional showers and storms to develop within the the next
couple of hours. No severe weather is expected, although PW
values near 1.6" could support heavy rainfall. Otherwise, funnel
clouds cannot be ruled out across central/south-central KS
later this afternoon as low-level instability increases above
100 J/kg while overlapping the low-level vorticity in the
vicinity of the surface circulation.

Transitioning into tonight, a midlevel perturbation across northeast
CO will progress southeastward into southern KS after 7 PM.
This feature may yield an increase in shower/storm coverage
overnight along and east of the KS Turnpike. Rain chances
(10-30%) remain in the forecast through Tuesday. There are
likely to be dry periods but the nearby midlevel low and weak
perturbations translating across the area support at least small
rain chances.

Beyond Tuesday, midlevel heights will begin to increase as the
midlevel low departs to the east and the western CONUS ridge
gradually builds eastward. This eastward shift will shunt the bulk
of rain chances east of the area with temperatures near normal (low
to mid 90s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours as a
surface boundary continues to progress from north to south over
south central KS. Ongoing scattered showers and storms are
anticipated to continue through the overnight hours along the
boundary as it pushes southward, with an additional chance for
showers and storms at ICT shortly before sunrise. Confidence in
these additional chances is low at this point, so mentioned as VCSH
for now. Otherwise, look for light north/northeasterly winds after
sundown at all sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRB
AVIATION...JWK/KED