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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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196 FXUS63 KICT 151730 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid today but record temperatures are unlikely - Another hot day Tuesday in the south but cooling off in the north with an approaching front - Unseasonably cool for the end of the week and into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Ridging continues to build into the region today along with some weak moisture advection. Boundary layer temperatures are expected to be in the 37C-40C range today over much of Central and Southern Kansas. Combine this with 850mb temps in the 29C-32C range, expect temperatures to reach the 105 mark rather easily. Records for today still look out of reach as they are all over 110 and from the dust bowl era or 1980. By late this afternoon and into the evening, a slow moving cold front will be encroaching on the region. There will be plenty of moisture in the region to provide the fuel along with the inherent forcing for the front to kick of the thunderstorm activity tonight. That said, shear values and upper level support is rather weak. Combine this with warm 700mb temps (15C-17C), any storms that do develop and move into the region will likely be on the weaker side and are unlikely to produce severe weather. That said, and isolated severe storms with quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds can`t be ruled out. Further north in Northwest Kansas, this will be a different story as the mid and upper level dynamics appear to be more conducive to stronger storms. For the CWA, this activity looks to be rather weak. Tuesday looks to be rather tricky. The position and the speed of the incoming front will play a large role in temperatures. Some of the ensembles are rather quick with the frontal system and bring in higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across the CWA fairly early. This solution would likely keep the hot temperatures restricted to the far southeastern areas of the CWA. Other ensembles are slower indicating a larger area of hot temperatures with a later arrival of the front. Either solution presents a possible problem with cloud cover which could also hamper temperatures. Given the uncertainties, left the heat head line as is but made some minor adjustments to temperatures. Primarily pushing the hotter temperatures a little further south to compensate the higher potential for cloud cover hanging around longer than previously expected in the central areas of the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night. Again, like Monday night, shear values and mid level temperatures will inhibit strong to severe thunderstorms but the potential for heavy rain is higher. Also, given the slow moving nature these storms are likely to present, there is a chance for some localized flooding. Wednesday and into the weekend, northerly flow and CAA will take control. Rain chances will remain fairly high but severe weather looks unlikely at this time. Temperatures are expected to be a good 10 degrees below normal for this time of year providing a nice reprieve from the oppressive temperatures of today. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. A weak cold front will move southward across central Kansas this evening with isolated convection possible along the front. Strong wind gusts will be possible. Overnight, widely scattered showers and storms may develop along and just behind the front as it moves into south central and southeast Kansas toward dawn. Due to uncertainty in coverage in time and space, have only indicated chances with VCSH for now. KED && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Forecast high and record highs for today: Today`s High Record High Wichita 106 110 (1936) Salina 108 112 (1934) Chanute 102 115 (1936) Russell 106 109 (1980) && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...KED CLIMATE...ELM