Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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640 FXUS63 KICT 160814 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cooler but still hot day today with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms - Unseasonable cool temperatures expected for mid week and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A frontal system will be slowly pushing through the CWA through the day today and will making the temperature forecast rather tricky. Convective debris from this morning storms will also make temperatures tricky. Most areas are expected to be hot again today but not nearly as hot as yesterday. Central Kansas will be as much as 14-16 degrees cooler today. Cloud cover and cooler air will continue to push into the region through the afternoon. The presence of the front across the region will provide need forcing to keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Lapse rates and shear values remain decent and bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. Hail up to half dollars and 70 mph winds will be possible with the strongest storms. The best chance for the severe thunderstorm activity will be along Smokey and Red Hills of Central and parts of South Central Kansas this afternoon and evening. The potential for this activity will create a higher chance for cloud cover in the afternoon. This will keep the temperatures from climbing into he 100s today as the front continues to sink south. Areas of far Southeast Kansas are the most likely areas to see the higher heat indices. Could see a brief period of heat indices along the Oklahoma State line in the 105-107 range during the afternoon today. This is high enough to warrant another heat advisory for southern areas along the Oklahoma state line. By tonight, the showers and thunderstorms will be pushing further south and will over spread the region. By Wednesday morning, the front will be pushing to the south and the rain will be coming to an end by the early afternoon. Temperatures will take a tumble and are likely to struggle to reach the mid and upper 80s in some areas. The extended range indicates a series of Canadian high pressure systems pushing into the region. This will keep a persistent northerly flow over the region. This will keep the unseasonably cool temperatures in the forecast through the coming weekend and the chances for periodic rain as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A convectively induced mid-level disturbance approaching from the High Plains along with a frontal zone draped across the region will support shower/thunderstorm chances overnight into early Tuesday, mainly over central Kansas (i.e. Russell, Great Bend, Salina, and maybe Hutchinson). Thinking the main threats with the strongest activity will be erratic gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and perhaps very small hail. Additional thunderstorm activity is possible late this afternoon and tonight over central and southern portions of Kansas in vicinity of the frontal boundary, and also as activity rolls east-southeast off the High Plains. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ADK