142
FXUS63 KICT 160546
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Initial (modest) heat relief and widely scattered shower/storm
  chances tonight thru Tuesday.

- Better chances for showers/storms Tuesday night with stronger
  secondary cold front with more significant cooling on
  Wednesday.

- Cooler/drier air with temperatures below climo to finish the
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Heat relief is on the way, though it will come in somewhat
limited fashion on Tuesday behind a shallow/weak surface cold
front. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers/storms
are possible along or just behind the boundary this evening,
more probable just north and west of the forecast area. However,
some short term models suggest a loosely organized cluster may
move or develop east-southeastward into central and portions of
southern Kansas toward dawn. So will grade modest chance PoPs
across central Kansas to slight PoPs closer to the Oklahoma
border. Any convective activity could linger thru the morning on
Tuesday with the effective initial front expected to push along
or just south of the Oklahoma border by the afternoon. Modest
cooling (less hot) conditions are expected behind this shallow
front. That said, heat indices may still climb to near 105 for the
Oklahoma border counties of south central and southeast Kansas, so
the Heat Advisory may need to be extended, though confidence was not
high enough to do so with this forecast cycle. As a stronger upper
trof pivots southeastward from the Upper Midwest into the western
Great Lakes Tuesday night, the stronger secondary cold front will
move southward across Kansas. Convective chances look to increase
across the entire area by Tuesday night with a potential MCS
evolving in the upslope flow regime across the central high Plains
which should move southeastward along the moisture and instability
axis along the southward moving frontal zone. The cooler and drier
air will overspread area later Wednesday into Thursday as the large
low level anticyclone and Canadian origin airmass settles southward
across the Midwest. So the main theme for the latter half of the
week will continue to be the more tolerable below climo temperatures
for Kansas. The unseasonably mild regime should continue thru the
weekend with the core of the more intense heat residing across the
western conus as the upper ridge remains centered from Arizona and
Great Basin into the Canadian Rockies. Kansas will remain in
northerly flow aloft with potential weak disturbances dropping south
providing limited precip chances.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A convectively induced mid-level disturbance approaching from
the High Plains along with a frontal zone draped across the
region will support shower/thunderstorm chances overnight into
early Tuesday, mainly over central Kansas (i.e. Russell, Great
Bend, Salina, and maybe Hutchinson). Thinking the main threats
with the strongest activity will be erratic gusty winds, brief
heavy rain, and perhaps very small hail. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible late this afternoon and tonight over
central and southern portions of Kansas in vicinity of the
frontal boundary, and also as activity rolls east-southeast off
the High Plains.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK