Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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385 FXUS63 KICT 210542 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/storms expected this afternoon and tonight; no severe weather expected - Additional, small, rain chances Sunday through Tuesday - Drying trend beyond the middle of next && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 As of 130 PM, a complex weather pattern remains positioned across the area with multiple focal points for showers/storms. The most obvious is an MCV positioned across northeast KS. This MCV continues to maintain showers across east-central KS. The next zone of showers extends from southeast KS into OK, within the main midlevel trough axis. The 3rd zone is emerging across portions of central KS, where a surface circulation is evident. Latest satellite reveals a deepening cumulus field in the vicinity of the surface circulation. The expectation is for additional showers and storms to develop within the the next couple of hours. No severe weather is expected, although PW values near 1.6" could support heavy rainfall. Otherwise, funnel clouds cannot be ruled out across central/south-central KS later this afternoon as low-level instability increases above 100 J/kg while overlapping the low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the surface circulation. Transitioning into tonight, a midlevel perturbation across northeast CO will progress southeastward into southern KS after 7 PM. This feature may yield an increase in shower/storm coverage overnight along and east of the KS Turnpike. Rain chances (10-30%) remain in the forecast through Tuesday. There are likely to be dry periods but the nearby midlevel low and weak perturbations translating across the area support at least small rain chances. Beyond Tuesday, midlevel heights will begin to increase as the midlevel low departs to the east and the western CONUS ridge gradually builds eastward. This eastward shift will shunt the bulk of rain chances east of the area with temperatures near normal (low to mid 90s). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 SCT to BKN lower VFR/MVFR cigs possible overnight before scattering out mid morning. Winds will remain light and mainly out of the ENE throughout the taf period. A small chance (15-25%) for isolated showers and storms will continue overnight and thru this afternoon across south central and southeast KS. Amendments will be made if necessary for this chance. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRB AVIATION...KMB