146
FXUS63 KICT 161122
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler but still hot day today with afternoon/evening
  showers and thunderstorms

- Unseasonable cool temperatures expected for mid week and
  through the weekend. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A frontal system will be slowly pushing through the CWA through the
day today and will making the temperature forecast rather tricky.
Convective debris from this morning storms will also make
temperatures tricky.  Most areas are expected to be hot again today
but not nearly as hot as yesterday.  Central Kansas will be as much
as 14-16 degrees cooler today.  Cloud cover and cooler air will
continue to push into the region through the afternoon.  The
presence of the front across the region will provide need forcing to
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Lapse rates and shear values remain decent and bring the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into the
evening.  Hail up to half dollars and 70 mph winds will be possible
with the strongest storms.  The best chance for the severe
thunderstorm activity will be along Smokey and Red Hills of Central
and parts of South Central Kansas this afternoon and evening.

The potential for this activity will create a higher chance for
cloud cover in the afternoon.  This will keep the temperatures from
climbing into he 100s today as the front continues to sink south.
Areas of far Southeast Kansas are the most likely areas to see the
higher heat indices.  Could see a brief period of heat indices along
the Oklahoma State line in the 105-107 range during the afternoon
today.  This is high enough to warrant another heat advisory for
southern areas along the Oklahoma state line. By tonight, the
showers and thunderstorms will be pushing further south and will
over spread the region.  By Wednesday morning, the front will be
pushing to the south and the rain will be coming to an end by the
early afternoon.  Temperatures will take a tumble and are likely to
struggle to reach the mid and upper 80s in some areas.

The extended range indicates a series of Canadian high pressure
systems pushing into the region.  This will keep a persistent
northerly flow over the region.  This will keep the unseasonably
cool temperatures in the forecast through the coming weekend and the
chances for periodic rain as well.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the region
for much of the TAF period. There will be a reprieve for all
terminals around 17Z to 00Z. After 00Z, expect the chances for
thunderstorms to return with some thunderstorms likely to be
severe (50Kts winds). KRSL and KGBD are the most likely
terminals to see this activity. This activity will likely remain
for the rest of the TAF period. This thunderstorm activity is
expected to produce MVFR and IFR conditions, especially after
00Z tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM