Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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782 FXUS63 KICT 170530 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One last hot day across the region; heat indices at or above 105 expected this afternoon across southern and southeast Kansas. - Additional showers and storms tonight. Some could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall, mainly across far southern Kansas. - Below average temperatures forecast from Wednesday through the middle of next week. - Next storm chances forecast for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 In the wake of last night`s/this morning`s significant severe storms along the I-70 corridor, an MCV was noted across south-central Kansas early this afternoon and slowly moving east-southeastward across the region. A residual surface boundary is also being noted along an Alva-Winfield-Eureka-Iola line, and this will likely be the delineation between a less unstable airmass (to the northwest) and a more unstable airmass (to the southeast) this evening as storms move in from the west. However, there are a couple of caveats that will need to be considered throughout the remainder of the afternoon. First is that this boundary is likely to continue sagging southeastward with the MCV this afternoon and evening. Also, strong subsidence on the west side of this MCV will making conditions hostile for the continuation of storms as they approach from the west this evening and tonight. As such, this morning`s suite of CAMs suggest storms are likely to make it to a Great Bend-Medicine Lodge line before generally falling apart and mostly continue along or just south of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line thereafter. It still possible storms could occur as far north as the US-54 corridor, but chances that these storms will be severe appears to be decreasing early this afternoon. The best chances for severe storms for our CWA tonight will be across portions of Harper and Sumner counties where quarter sized hail, up to 70 mph wind gusts, and heavy rainfall will be possible. It should be noted as well that as storm chances have shifted southward into Oklahoma, the threat of persistent heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is also shifting to along or just south of the state line. The threat of intense heat will also continue across south-central and southeast Kansas for the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. While temperatures are slightly less hot than previously forecast, the presence of the boundary is allowing for more moisture to pool up along and south of the US-54 corridor, and heat indices are still expected to be around 105 for several hours this afternoon and evening across southern and southeast Kansas. In the wake of tonight`s activity, much milder temperatures are expected across the entirety of the forecast from Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period. A slight warm up is possible on Friday ahead of another cold front expected to pass through the area this weekend. Uncertainty is still relatively high, but the area should its next storm chances as the front passes through the region Saturday and Sunday. It`s too early to determine if severe weather will be a concern going into the weekend, so stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days. One thing that can be said with more certainty sis that this weekend`s cold front will reinforce more mild temperatures across the area and should prolong below average temperatures through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period with the exception of ICT and KCNU. These terminals are likely to see some thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours. This activity may produce winds into the 45Kts range with some heavy rain. This activity is expected to diminish by 12Z this morning and give way to VFR conditions. By 04Z tomorrow night, there will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. KRSL and KGBD are the first terminals expected to see this activity. At this time, the stronger thunderstorm activity is not expected until after this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...ELM