Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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316 FXUS63 KICT 170816 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/storms over far southern Kansas through early to mid this morning. - A prolonged period of below average temperatures through at least mid next week, along with periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from Friday night through the weekend or early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 PRECIPITATION...A convectively-generated mid-level disturbance approaching from the west, in concert with strong convergence along/north of a stationary frontal zone will continue to support scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms over far southern Kansas the rest of the night, gradually diminishing by early to mid this morning. The combination of modest to strong instability with weak deep layer shear will support pulse and weakly organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of 50-60 mph winds and dime size hail. Additionally, high precipitable waters combined with slow and training storm motions will support pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding of typical flood-prone areas. Otherwise, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm this afternoon-evening across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, as an elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest. Thinking any activity will be quite isolated given relatively weak forcing. Limited instability/shear should preclude severe weather. For late tonight into Thursday morning, a few showers/thunderstorms appear possible west of I-135, within a zone of increasing 700-600mb warm advection. Additional isolated showers/storms are possible Thursday night into early Friday, as shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Activity will likely not be widespread, and severe weather is not expected in both cases. A prolonged period of off-and-on showers/thunderstorms is expected from Friday night through early to mid next week, as an unseasonably deep upper trough digs south and stalls out over the central CONUS. At this point, confidence in widespread/numerous activity is highest Friday night through Saturday night or Sunday. Limited instability with weak to modest deep layer shear may support a few strong to marginally severe storms during this time along with locally heavy rain, especially Friday night-Saturday, but all-in-all widespread severe weather is not expected. TEMPERATURES...Unseasonably deep and persistent upper troughing over portions of the central and eastern CONUS, along with periodic bouts of precipitation and clouds, will support below average temperatures through at least mid next week. Thinking temperatures will be coolest Saturday through Monday, when the potential for clouds/precipitation will be highest. Forecast high temperatures mostly in the 80s are likely, although 70s are probable for at least portions of the forecast area Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period with the exception of ICT and KCNU. These terminals are likely to see some thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours. This activity may produce winds into the 45Kts range with some heavy rain. This activity is expected to diminish by 12Z this morning and give way to VFR conditions. By 04Z tomorrow night, there will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. KRSL and KGBD are the first terminals expected to see this activity. At this time, the stronger thunderstorm activity is not expected until after this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM