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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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652 FXUS63 KICT 171717 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/storms over far southern Kansas through early to mid this morning. - A prolonged period of below average temperatures through at least mid next week, along with periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from Friday night through the weekend or early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 PRECIPITATION...A convectively-generated mid-level disturbance approaching from the west, in concert with strong convergence along/north of a stationary frontal zone will continue to support scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms over far southern Kansas the rest of the night, gradually diminishing by early to mid this morning. The combination of modest to strong instability with weak deep layer shear will support pulse and weakly organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of 50-60 mph winds and dime size hail. Additionally, high precipitable waters combined with slow and training storm motions will support pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding of typical flood-prone areas. Otherwise, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm this afternoon-evening across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, as an elongated upper trough approaches from the northwest. Thinking any activity will be quite isolated given relatively weak forcing. Limited instability/shear should preclude severe weather. For late tonight into Thursday morning, a few showers/thunderstorms appear possible west of I-135, within a zone of increasing 700-600mb warm advection. Additional isolated showers/storms are possible Thursday night into early Friday, as shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Activity will likely not be widespread, and severe weather is not expected in both cases. A prolonged period of off-and-on showers/thunderstorms is expected from Friday night through early to mid next week, as an unseasonably deep upper trough digs south and stalls out over the central CONUS. At this point, confidence in widespread/numerous activity is highest Friday night through Saturday night or Sunday. Limited instability with weak to modest deep layer shear may support a few strong to marginally severe storms during this time along with locally heavy rain, especially Friday night-Saturday, but all-in-all widespread severe weather is not expected. TEMPERATURES...Unseasonably deep and persistent upper troughing over portions of the central and eastern CONUS, along with periodic bouts of precipitation and clouds, will support below average temperatures through at least mid next week. Thinking temperatures will be coolest Saturday through Monday, when the potential for clouds/precipitation will be highest. Forecast high temperatures mostly in the 80s are likely, although 70s are probable for at least portions of the forecast area Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Minor aviation concerns over the next 6 hours should give way to prevailing VFR conditions thereafter. As 17Z early this afternoon, MVFR cigs continue to linger across portions of southeast Kansas. KCNU is at the fringe of the low clouds, and conditions at and around the TAF site should improve gradually through the remainder of the day. These low cigs should continue to sink southward this afternoon and evening into Oklahoma. Meanwhile, all other TAF sites (and their surrounding areas) should experience prevailing VFR conditions. Winds are generally out of the northeast this afternoon, but a gradual shift to east or southeasterly should occur during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. While wind gusts are around 20 to 25 knots in some areas early this afternoon, winds should relax to around 10 knots by this evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC