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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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087 FXUS63 KICT 171929 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A prolonged period of below average temperatures through at least mid next week. - Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances are forecast from Thursday morning through early next week, best chances will be Friday night through Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Much milder and drier air has filtered across the area early this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s! Talk about a relief from the hot and humid conditions over the past fews days. Northeasterly winds though the remainder of the day should continue to promote these conditions this afternoon and evening. Analyzing water vapor satellite, a powerful upper ridge is located over the Desert Southwest with deep troughing over the Great Lakes Region. As a result, the central plains is under a northwesterly flow regime, and this is likely to stay over the next week or so. This will generally keep temperatures on the milder side, and embedded ripples in the upper flow will provide some opportunities for storms across the region. A low chance (~15%) of isolated showers or storms exists across portions of central Kansas Thursday morning. This is thanks to just a little bit of moisture remaining in the mid level along with some very subtle WAA at 700 mb. Forecast soundings indicate just a hint of elevated instability (around 100 to 300 J/kg) rooted around 700 mb, so a couple of showers or maybe a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the I-70 corridor mainly west of Salina at or just after sunrise. This activity is likely to dissipate by midday, and much of the forecast area will experience another mild day in the 80s on Thursday. Friday morning could be a bit more interesting with slightly more prominent mid level WAA and around 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. Short term hi-res models are a bit more bullish with convection Friday morning than global models at this time, so trends will need to be monitored over the next day or so to see if storm chances Friday morning need to be increased. Regardless, by midday Friday, activity should decrease, and much of day will likely be dry for much of the forecast area. In lieu of an approaching front, a slight warm up is forecast for Friday with afternoon highs in the low 90s. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northern High Plains and move south and east into portions of northern and central Kansas Friday evening into the nighttime hours. Timing and coverage of thunderstorms across the area Friday night into Saturday morning is still uncertain. Global models are not particularly excited about instability or the strength of the LLJ across the area, so any ongoing storms look to struggle making it across Kansas late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Additionally, instability appears to be quite meager on Saturday, and with no real focus, any further thunderstorm development on Saturday will be hit-or-miss at best. That being said, a cutoff upper low will sink down out of the Midwest and into the central plains this weekend and early next week. This will help to keep hit-or-miss storm chances through early next week as well as promote cooler temperatures. In fact, many locations will struggle to reach 80 during the afternoon hours Saturday through Monday. These below average temperatures will likely stick around through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Minor aviation concerns over the next 6 hours should give way to prevailing VFR conditions thereafter. As 17Z early this afternoon, MVFR cigs continue to linger across portions of southeast Kansas. KCNU is at the fringe of the low clouds, and conditions at and around the TAF site should improve gradually through the remainder of the day. These low cigs should continue to sink southward this afternoon and evening into Oklahoma. Meanwhile, all other TAF sites (and their surrounding areas) should experience prevailing VFR conditions. Winds are generally out of the northeast this afternoon, but a gradual shift to east or southeasterly should occur during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. While wind gusts are around 20 to 25 knots in some areas early this afternoon, winds should relax to around 10 knots by this evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JC